Image: Vanguard X
Here’s a M. Night Shyamalan-level plot twist for anyone predicting an AI job apocalypse:
Rather than eliminating positions en masse, AI might actually be boosting both work and wages in roles most exposed to the technology, according to new research from investment giant Vanguard.
Vanguard analyzed Labor Department data to identify jobs with tasks that can be augmented or replaced by AI, like data analysis or customer support, as well as roles with low exposure to AI, like construction, cleaning, or trade jobs.
Their analysis found that both wage and job growth increased over the past two years in the occupations most exposed to AI, compared with those with less exposure.
Vanguard researchers concluded that AI has been helping workers shift toward higher-value tasks and making them more productive over the two-year period.
Zoom out: The overall US job market has cooled in recent months, with the tech sector and professional occupations—like consulting—seeing job losses and fewer job openings.
Many analysts say the root causes stem mostly from broader macroeconomic pressures, like recent large-scale federal job cuts or tighter immigration rules, and aren’t due to AI.
However…Not everyone is convinced. Tuesday’s jobs report shows hiring in many white-collar industries continues to soften, while unemployment among college-educated workers is drifting higher. This data tracks with numerous recent examples of Fortune 500 CEOs warning that AI could soon replace a large percentage of white-collar workers across the entire US economy.

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