Gen Z is rushing into trade jobs… right as they start disappearing

Younger US adults are increasingly turning in their laptops and morning Starbucks for bright-orange vests and gas station coffee, with a recent general shift in career paths towards trade jobs.

• At the Fashion Institute of Technology, a new tailoring program drew 190 applicants for just 15 spots.
• Nationwide, enrollment at vocational-focused community colleges is up nearly 20% since 2020.

There’s just one problem: the trade-job well is starting to dry up.

How we got here

The unemployment rate for recent college grads stood at 5.6% in December 2025, well above the national average. At the same time, companies are pulling back on hiring as they increasingly adopt AI into core business operations.

• New college grads make up ~7% of hires at US big tech firms, down more than half compared to pre-pandemic levels.
• Overall, 40+% of employers say they plan to use AI to cut headcount, with new hires and recent grads often being the first to go, per the World Economic Forum.

Enter the trades: For a lot of young workers, hands-on blue-collar jobs check all the boxes: solid pay, faster training, lower student debt, and lower risk of being replaced by AI.

But…The timing isn’t ideal. While interest in the trades is surging, the job market itself has been moving in the opposite direction after many blue-collar sectors hit a peak around 2022.

• Hiring across the manufacturing sector, which encompasses the trades, has declined roughly 40% in the last four years.
• Over the past year alone, jobs in sectors that include the trades have racked up an estimated ~150,000 net losses.

Bottom line: “There are jobs available, but right now, demand for blue-collar labor is not sufficient to meet the supply,” says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for accounting firm RSM.