🤖 Science & Emerging Tech

An asteroid could hit Earth in 2032

Tuesday, Feb 18

A generic asteroid; Image: ESA/FILE

New NASA data has Leo DiCaprio clearing his schedule for future talk show appearances.

There is a 2.6% (1-in-38) chance that an asteroid will hit Earth on December 22, 2032, according to America’s space agency. That’s up from an initial estimate of 1.2% in late January, shortly after it was discovered.

  • The asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, measures an estimated 130–300 feet across, and is traveling through space at 30,000+ mph.
  • Astronomers currently believe it would create an explosion upon impact equivalent to ~500x the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, affecting a ~30-mile radius around the impact site.

The great unknown

The odds of collision – while still low – are expected to keep fluctuating as astronomers gather more information. Current estimates about 2024 YR4’s size and trajectory are solely based on ground-telescope data, which paints a limited picture of both.

James Webb to the rescue: The James Webb Space Telescope (aka the GOAT of telescopes) will be used to observe 2024 YR4 in the coming months, with this information expected to alter the odds (potentially drastically), per experts.

☄️ It's happened before...Shortly after being discovered in 2004, the asteroid Apophis was given a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth.

However, after a few months and with better observations, scientists adjusted their calculations; Apophis’ chances of collision are now zero when it passes by Earth in 2029. Though in the unlikely event of a Don’t Look Up scenario, NASA can Hulk-smash it to pieces.

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