It’s been a historically quiet Atlantic hurricane season

We’re nearly four months into Atlantic hurricane season, and something is conspicuously missing: the storms themselves.

Not a single Atlantic hurricane has formed since June 1, marking the longest the region has gone without a major storm since at least 1914.

While the first Atlantic hurricane typically arrives by mid-August, none of the region’s seven named storms so far this year have strengthened beyond tropical-storm status.

Where are all the hurricanes?

El Niño deserves most of the credit. The climate pattern features unusually warm waters in the equatorial Pacific and tends to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical storms to organize and strengthen.

This year's El Niño is shaping up to be especially strong, with the NOAA predicting a 90%+ chance it becomes a very strong event and 75%+ chance it reaches record-breaking strength.

Meanwhile…The Pacific Ocean has produced 18 named storms so far, including eight hurricanes, which is above average based on historical norms.

But don’t put away the hurricane kit just yet. The Atlantic season officially runs through November 30, and NOAA’s August outlook still called for 2–6 hurricanes over the full season.