El Niño gears up for a historic encore

Mother Nature is preparing to turn the thermostat all the way up over the next several months.

Federal forecasters say the current El Niño event may become one of the strongest on record, per new data published last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

• There’s now an 81% chance of a “very strong” El Niño developing between October and December, up from 63% in June.
• The pattern is also now expected to stick around through early spring 2027.

What exactly is El Niño?

The weather event represents the warm phase of the El Niño-La Niña pattern that develops in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño events, weak trade winds are associated with above-average surface temperatures in those waters, sending ripples through weather patterns around the globe.

For the US, the effects are a mixed bag:

• A stronger El Niño typically results in a warmer-than-average winter across the northern US, while southern states often see a stormier winter with increased chances of rain and snow.
• Strong El Niño events also usually suppress Atlantic hurricanes by creating higher atmospheric stability, making it more difficult for them to form.

But it isn’t all sunshine and snow days. El Niño events are associated with increased risks of flooding, high tides along the West Coast, and harmful algae blooms. Previous versions have also led to some of the hottest years on record, including record-breaking global temps in 2024.