Violent crime is falling

Overall crime in the US declined in 2023 compared to a year earlier, with significant decreases for murder and rape in particular, according to the FBI’s annual Summary of Crime in the Nation report published yesterday. (See? All news isn’t bad.)

By the numbers: Last year, violent crime dropped by 3% across the country, with the largest decreases seen in two categories: murder and nonnegligent manslaughter (-11.6%), and rape (-9.4%).

• Property crime as a whole also fell nationwide (-2.4%) – though some individual categories under that umbrella saw significant annual increases, including burglary (+7.6%) and motor vehicle theft (+12.6%).

The 2023 report is more comprehensive than other recent editions. The FBI relies on data submitted by law enforcement agencies around the country, a process that can sometimes be unreliable.

• For example: in 2021, the FBI received data from law-enforcement agencies covering ~65% of the US population, and was forced to fill in the gaps with estimates.
• But for this year’s report, the FBI says it received data from agencies covering 94% of Americans, including every US city with a population of 1+ million.

📉 Zoom out: Apart from the federal government, other sources also suggest a recent decline in violent crime across the US. The Major Cities Chiefs Association, which regularly surveys 70 major metropolitan police departments, found a 17% annual drop in murders over the first half of 2024, as well as declines for rapes (-10%), robberies (-6%), and aggravated assaults (-5%).