New research shows how Trump won the 2024 election

President Trump’s victory over former VP Kamala Harris in the 2024 election was fueled by gains among key pillars of the Democratic Party’s voting coalition, according to a new in-depth study from Pew Research that matched all ~9,000 survey respondents to their official voter registration records to reveal new details about the makeup of each party’s voters:

• Trump almost won the Latino vote. Harris beat Trump by a 51%-48% margin among Hispanic voters, a stark difference from Biden's 61%-36% margin of victory in 2020. Trump’s showing among Latinos in 2024 was the best of any GOP candidate in the modern era (dating back to 1960), per Axios.
• Black voters also moved towards Trump. Between 2020 and 2024, Trump nearly doubled his support among Black voters—though that only amounted to 15% in 2024, compared to 83% for Harris.
• Trump made further gains among men. Men voted for Trump by a 55%-43% margin, up from 50%-48% in 2020. Trump also narrowly beat Harris among men under 50, a major shift from 2020 when they favored Biden by 10 points.

We’ll see what happens…The 2026 midterms will reveal how Trump’s performance in his second term as President, as well as the Democrats’ performance and campaign strategy, has impacted the ongoing shift in political affiliations across America. Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters has fallen significantly since he took office, according to multiple polls.