Scientists predict another record-hot year coming up

Earth’s temperature forecast is apparently stuck on “slightly concerning with a chance of sweating through your shirt.”

There’s an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026-2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record, per a new UN World Meteorological Organization report.

• Scientists also project a 75% chance the average global temperature across that five-year stretch will exceed 2.7°F above pre-industrial levels.
• That figure is the threshold at which countries pledged to try keeping temperatures below in 2015, when signing the landmark Paris Climate Accords.

What’s stoking the heat?

Researchers point to rising fossil fuel emissions as a main driver of rising temps, since carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere. A potential El Niño event later this year could also turbocharge global temperatures, meaning the next record annual temperature may arrive as soon as 2027.

Many climate experts argue the findings show why countries should accelerate clean-energy investment to reduce their fossil fuel usage, since the heat it adds to Earth’s atmosphere leads to more extreme droughts, storms, heatwaves, and other weather patterns.

At the same time: Many policymakers caution against treating climate projections as evidence the world will experience apocalypse-level events, arguing that human adaptations like better infrastructure, improved forecasting, and technological innovation can help blunt many future impacts.