A (way too early) look at 2024
Image: Politico
President Biden is the third most-likely candidate to win the 2024 presidential election, per new Vegas odds posted this weekend, with the incumbent placing behind former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
- According to DraftKings, Trump leads the field at +250 – aka if you win a $100 bet, you'll pocket $350 – while DeSantis is at +300, and Biden sits at +550.
🔵 On the Democratic side: Nearly two-thirds of Democrats (64%) say they don’t want Biden to run again in 2024, per a recent NY Times/Siena College poll. It also found Biden’s approval rating at an all-time low of 33%, though he still led by three points in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against Trump.
- Other potential candidates include VP Kamala Harris (+1200 odds to win on DraftKings), Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (+2500), and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (+3000), who launched his first anti-DeSantis campaign ads in Florida this month.
🔴 On the GOP side: More than half of Republicans (51%) say they’d vote for a primary candidate other than Trump, per recent polling, though the former president’s overall vote share is still twice that of second-place DeSantis.
- Other potential candidates include former VP Mike Pence (+1400), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (+2500), South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (+5000), and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (+5000).
👀 Looking ahead… In an interview last Thursday, Trump said his decision to run in 2024 is “already made,” and implied that it's not a question of if he'll run but rather when he'll announce his candidacy.
+Way too early flash poll (we won’t hold you to it, promise): If the 2024 presidential election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
See a 360° view of what the media is saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that Democrats currently find themselves in a conundrum – their incumbent and best candidate is deeply unpopular among a majority of Americans, but Biden’s all-but-guaranteed to win the primary if he ends up running.
- Others contend that today’s unique political climate will favor unconventional outsiders in the 2024 race, and could spell the beginning of the end for our current two-party system if the right candidate emerges.
- “Joe Biden is deeply unpopular. But can Democrats find an alternative for 2024?” –Ross Barkan, The Guardian
- “​​A 2024 Presidential Candidate Who Meets the Moment” –David Brooks, NY Times
- “A terrifying glimpse of what could await America after the 2024 election” –Michael D’Antonio, CNN
- “Biden may think he can beat Trump in 2024. But what if the GOP chooses someone else?” –Arick Wierson and Bradley Honan, NBC News THINK
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Biden shouldn’t even be considering a run in 2024 given both his advanced age and high unpopularity among all Americans, even within his own Democratic party.
- Others contend that Republicans should be ecstatic to see CA Gov. Gavin Newsom throw his hat in the ring, portraying him as a classic West Coast elitist who’s out of touch with normal working class Americans.
- “The 80s Called. They’re on Their Way for You, Mr. President” –Lance Morrow, WSJ
- “Gavin Newsom’s 2024 Presidential Campaign Has Begun” –Kenneth L. Khachigian, chief speechwriter for President Ronald Reagan
- “The Democrats' Most Bitter Pill” –Jim Geraghty, National Review
- “Grumpy old men: the 2024 sequel of Biden and Trump” –Michael Goodwin, NY Post
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