Midterms are officially underway
Image: Indiana Daily Student
The first mail-in ballots for the November midterms were sent out to North Carolina residents in recent days, while the final two primaries of the 2022 election cycle were held in Delaware and New Hampshire yesterday.
🏛️🗳️ A deeper dive… All 435 House seats are up for election, as are 35 Senate seats – 14 currently held by Democrats, and 21 by Republicans. The GOP only needs to flip one seat to win back the Senate, and four seats to gain control of the House.
Take a peek at the primary results and midterm election previews for all 50 states here.
Image: RealClearPolitics
☝️ What do the polls say?... Republicans and Democrats have been locked in a dead heat on a generic congressional ballot for the past several weeks, per data from RealClearPolitics. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight projects there’s a 29% chance Republicans take control of the Senate, and a 73% chance the GOP wins back the House (down from 36% & 77% when we last covered the midterms a month ago).
- Historically, a first-term president’s party usually suffers some losses in the midterms – especially when that president is as unpopular nationally as Biden, who’s currently hovering around 43% job approval (up 3% from last month).
📊 Flash poll: If the midterms were held today, which Congressional candidate would you vote for?
One from a third party (Libertarian, Green, etc.)
See a 360° view of what the media is saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that Democrats stand a good chance due to the not-insignificant population of voters who are decidedly ‘meh’ on President Biden’s job performance, but still plan to vote for a congressional Dem anyways.
- Others contend that Democrats performing well in the midterms will actually hurt the party in the long run, as it likely raises the chances of Trump winning the presidency in 2024.
- “What if the midterm elections aren’t about Biden after all?” –Paul Waldman and Greg Sargent, WaPo
- “A Crushing Defeat in November Would Help Democrats” –Clive Crook, Bloomberg
- “Yes, the Polling Warning Signs Are Flashing Again” –Nate Cohn, NY Times
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Republicans should no longer be confident that a predicted ‘red wave’ in the midterms will actually materialize, given recent results from primaries and special elections across the country.
- Others contend that Republicans are in an OK position heading into the midterms, since the widely-reported surge by Democrats in recent public polling probably won’t materialize in the voting booth.
- “A Republican Midterm Election Victory Isn’t Assured” –WSJ Editorial Board
- “Is the Democratic Midterm Surge Overrated? Why Republicans Can Still Win the House and Senate.” –Ross Douthat, Kristen Soltis Anderson and Erick Erickson, NY Times
- “Welcome to the 2022 midterms: Let the liberal media spin begin” –Joseph Curl, Washington Examiner
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