It’s midterm szn, y’all
Image: LA Times
We’re officially one month (and one day) away from the midterm elections, held this year on November 8, though early voting has already started in nearly a dozen states that use mail-in or absentee ballots.
🏛️🗳️ A deeper dive… All 435 House seats are up for election, as are 35 Senate seats – 14 currently held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. The GOP only needs to flip one seat to win back the Senate, and four seats to gain control of the House.
- Take a peek at the primary results and midterm election previews for all 50 states here.
Image: RealClearPolitics
☝️ What do the polls say?... Republicans and Democrats have been locked in a dead heat on a generic congressional ballot for the past two months, per data from RealClearPolitics. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight projects there’s a 33% chance Republicans take control of the Senate, and a 69% chance the GOP wins back the House (compared to 29% and 73% when we last covered the midterms a month ago).
- Historically, a first-term president’s party usually suffers some losses in the midterms. Especially when that president is as unpopular nationally as Biden, who’s currently hovering around 43% job approval (unchanged from last month), the lowest non-Trump rating at this point in the presidency since Ronald Reagan.
📊 Flash poll: If the midterms were held today, which generic Congressional candidate would you vote for?
One from a third party (Libertarian, Green, etc.)
See a 360° view of what the media is saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators on the left argue that despite polls that the US is relatively split, Democrats will hold the House since they will regain Trump districts.
- Others contend that the House Dems retiring mostly safe seats, combined with more Senate Republican retirements, will allow Dems to hold the House and retake the Senate.
- “With a volatile U.S. electorate, no one can predict what'll happen in November's midterms” –Janet Hook, LA Times
- “Voters are really fired up about the 2022 midterms – and for good reason” –SE Cupp, CNN
- “The Midterms Are Now Even Harder to Predict” –Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators on the right argue that Republicans are in a strong position for a “red wave” election sweep due to Americans’ dissatisfaction with President Biden and the status quo.
- Others contend that Republicans should not get too confident in a sweeping red tsunami due to polls that show Democrats gaining public support in recent months.
- “Democrats' Senate hopes only get tougher in 2024” –Conn Carroll, Washington Examiner
- “Will the GOP Win the Senate in the 2022 Midterms?” –Karl Rove, WSJ
- “Midterm Polls Look Better for Republicans Than We’ve Been Led to Believe” –Jim Geraghty, National Review
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