It’s the final countdown
Image: LA Times
We're officially one day away from the midterm elections, held this year on Tuesday, November 7. Though early voting is already in full swing across the 46 states where it’s allowed.
🏛️🗳️ A deeper dive… All 435 House seats are up for election, as are 35 Senate seats – 14 currently held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. The GOP only needs to flip one seat to win back the Senate, and four seats to gain control of the House.
- So far, more than 40 million Americans have voted early. That’s already more than the previous midterm early-voting high, set during the 2018 elections.
- Overall, more Democrats (43%) have voted early than Republicans (34%), a trend also seen in 2020.
Image: RealClearPolitics
☝️ What do the polls say?... In generic polling, Republicans appear to have pulled ahead of Democrats, gaining a 2.5% lead this month per RealClearPolitics. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight projects there's a 54% chance Republicans take control of the Senate, and an 83% chance the GOP wins back the House (compared to 45% and 81% when we last covered the midterms two weeks ago).
- Historically, a first-term president’s party usually suffers some losses in the midterms. Especially when that president is as unpopular nationally as Biden, who’s currently hovering around 42% job approval (down 1% from last month), the lowest non-Trump rating at this point in the presidency since Ronald Reagan.
📊 Flash poll: Which generic Congressional candidate do you plan on voting for this midterm election?
One from a third party (Libertarian, Green, etc.)
See a 360° view of what the media is saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that Americans should support candidates committed to the democratic system and the peaceful transfer of power, and oppose those who have tried to profit from toxic lies about election integrity.
- Others contend that polls showing a ‘red wave’ in the midterms should be taken with a large grain of salt, given the previous (and infamous) recent discrepancies between pre-election polls and results.
- “This is not a normal election. Voters should keep that in mind.” –WaPo Editorial Board
- “Three Reasons Why Midterm Polls Could Be Wrong” –Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg
- “The Observer view on a dangerous moment for American democracy” –The Observer Editorial Board
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that voters are about to punish the party in power, aka Democrats, amid intense dissatisfaction with President Biden and rising anxiety over the economy and public safety.
- Others contend that Republicans are poised to win back a majority in both the House and Senate, as all major issues – inflation, the economy, crime, border security, Mr. Biden’s approval rating, etc. – work to the GOP’s advantage.
- “Republicans on a roll” –David M. Drucker, Washington Examiner
- “What to Expect in the 2022 Midterms” –Karl Rove, WSJ
- “With midterms rapidly approaching, Dem flip-flopping is now in overdrive” –NY Post Editorial Board
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