💬 Discussion

I spy, with my little eye… a balloon in the sky

Monday, Feb 6, 2023

Images: AJLabs | Randall Hill/Reuters

The US military shot down a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon over the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday, three days after it was spotted above Montana by civilians in a commercial airliner (though the gov't had reportedly already been tracking it for days).

🎈 More details… The balloon, which was roughly the size of three school buses, likely came to the contiguous US via Alaska and Canada before traveling across the country at an altitude of around 11 miles, according to federal officials.

The Pentagon said it was part of a “fleet” of Chinese surveillance balloons that have been spotted in recent years over Latin America, Europe, Asia, and the US. This includes three such incidents during the Trump administration and one at the beginning of Biden’s term, though “never for this duration of time.”

  • Chinese officials claimed the balloon was a civilian weather airship that had been blown off course due to “force majeure,” aka unforeseeable circumstances.
  • But US officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, dismissed Beijing’s explanation, asserting the object was clearly a surveillance balloon flying over sensitive sites to collect intelligence. Experts say China is likely using high-tech balloons to collect information instead of (or in addition to) satellites because they’re much cheaper to launch, obtain higher-quality images, and are far more maneuverable.

🇺🇲🇨🇳 Big picture: The balloon incident prompted Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday to cancel a planned visit to Beijing, which was aimed at improving US-China relations. The two countries have been increasingly combative over issues that include trade policy, China’s human rights record, and the sovereignty of Taiwan.

  • And on that note: a D.C.-area think tank last month published the results of a series of wargames – played by retired US generals, Navy officers, and Pentagon officials – simulating a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
  • Their conclusion? The US and Taiwan successfully defended the island nation against China, per a majority of the simulations, but with “enormous” losses sustained on both sides.

📊 Flash poll: Do you think the US will be in a physical war against China within the next 10 years?

Yes

No

Unsure/other

See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →

Democratic donkey symbol

Sprinkles from the Left

  • Others contend that the spy balloon incident is the latest example of China’s immense capacity to blunder, which the Biden administration has correctly taken advantage of in recent years.
  • Some commentators argue that the balloon incident has made the idea of stabilizing US-China relations even more difficult, but it also puts the onus on Beijing to resolve things.
  • “China’s alleged spy balloon is the perfect symbol of its clumsiness” –Sebastian Mallaby, WaPo
  • “China Must Repair Damage From Its Burst Balloon” –Mixin Pei, Bloomberg
  • “Suspected spy balloon shows how diplomacy can go way off course” –David A. Andelman CNN
Republican elephant symbol

Sprinkles from the Right

  • Some commentators argue that President Biden should have moved to shoot the balloon down sooner in order to make the remains more salvageable, and the US military should have detected the balloon much earlier.
  • Others contend that the balloon incident should serve as a wake-up call to the US government that China isn’t interested in repairing relations with Washington, despite what their officials may publicly claim.
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