A way-too-early look at 2024
Images: Getty
We’re more than a year and a half away from the next presidential election. But 2024 is starting to come into focus, thanks to new polling data published in recent weeks.
🔴 On the Republican side… The latest national polls show former President Trump has widened his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, while all other GOP candidates are trailing by a wide margin (including former SC Gov. Nikki Haley and former VP Mike Pence).
Some notable examples:
- A Yahoo News/YouGov poll published last week found Trump leading DeSantis 47% to 39%, up from a four-point lead for Trump the previous month.
- An Emerson College poll from late last month found 55% of Republican voters supported Trump versus 25% for DeSantis.
- GOP polling firm Echelon Insights found Trump was beating DeSantis by a 46% to 31% margin as of late February, compared to a two-point lead for Trump in January.
🔵 On the Democratic side… While a recent AP/NORC poll found nearly two-thirds of registered Democrats don’t want President Biden to run for a second term (62%), the White House has consistently said Biden intends to seek reelection in 2024 alongside VP Kamala Harris. And according to top Democratic Party officials, Biden’s internal support is so strong that there won’t be any primary debates this upcoming election cycle.
- If Biden doesn’t end up running again, he would become the sixth president in US history to not seek reelection while still being eligible for another term (and the first since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968).
📸 Big picture: A hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup featuring Joe Biden against either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis would be a toss-up, though all other potential GOP nominees currently trail Biden by at least a five-point margin, according to the latest polling data.
đź“Š Flash poll: If the 2024 presidential election were held today, which party would you vote for?
See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that Democrats shouldn’t be too quick to write off Joe Biden due to his advanced age, since these past few years have shown the octogenarian still has what it takes to get the job done in the Oval Office.
- Others contend that Democratic voters and the American public in general should have more respect for what Biden has accomplished so far while in office, and should be more amenable to four more years of his leadership.
- “I almost wrote off Joe Biden in 2020. Boy, was I wrong then. What about now?” –Robin Abcarian, LA Times
- “Biden’s Succession Problem” –Greg Craig, NY Times
- “Republicans must winnow 2024 presidential primary field” –MassLive Editorial Board
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that nobody deserves to be handed the Republican presidential nomination so far in advance, and point out that every potential candidate will have a chance to prove their mettle in the coming months.
- Others contend that it’s a great sign for Republicans that two of the three candidates officially vying for the 2024 nomination are Indian-Americans, which could signal a new era in which Democrats can no longer consistently rely on votes from immigrants.
- “Nikki Haley Enters” –National Review Editorial Board
- “A Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy Victory” –Sadanand Dhume, WSJ
- “2024 might not be your grandfather’s presidential race” –Carl Leubsdorf, Dallas Morning News
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