A way-too-early look at 2024
Images: Getty
Weāre roughly a year and a half away from the next presidential election. But 2024 is starting to come into focus, thanks to campaign announcements and new polling data.
šµ On the Democratic sideā¦ While an AP/NORC poll published over the weekend found more than half of registered Democrats donāt want Biden to run for a second term (52%), his administration is set to officially announce his 2024 candidacy tomorrow, per multiple sources.
Two political activists with no elected experience ā Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ā have also thrown their hat in the ring for the Democratic nomination. But the DNC, which previously committed to supporting Bidenās reelection, has said it isnāt planning to sponsor any primary debates for the 2024 season.
š“ On the Republican sideā¦ The latest national polls show former President Trump has widened his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who hasnāt officially entered the 2024 race yet. All other GOP candidates ā official or rumored ā are trailing by a wide margin, including former SC Gov. Nikki Haley, former VP Mike Pence, and SC Sen. Tim Scott.
Some notable examples:
- An NBC News poll published yesterday found Trump carried a 46%-31% lead over DeSantis in a hypothetical Republican primary; Pence received 6%; all other candidates were at 3% or below.
- A WSJ survey last week gave Trump a 51%-38% lead over DeSantis among likely GOP voters ā a stark reversal from the 14-point deficit Trump faced last December.
- Also last week, a YouGov/The Economist poll found Trump leading DeSantis by a 53%-22% margin in a head-to-head matchup.
š³ļøš At this point in time: Polling data suggests a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup featuring Biden against either Trump or DeSantis would be a toss-up, while all other potential GOP nominees currently trail Biden by a slim margin, per the latest polling data aggregated by FiveThirtyEight.
š Flash poll: If the 2024 presidential election were held today, which party would you vote for?
A third party/independent (like Afroman, who announced over the weekend)
See a 360Ā° view of what media pundits are saying ā
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that President Biden should seriously consider the concerns of American voters, including members of his own party, who say he may be too old to properly function for a full second term.
- Others contend that nobody should rush to count out DeSantis in the GOP primaries just yet, as he seems to offer many Republican voters what they want to see on paper ā plus thereās still lots of time left before votes are actually cast.
- āBiden Should Take Votersā Concerns About Age Seriouslyā āNY Times Editorial Board
- āDonāt count DeSantis out yet; the GOPās 2024 race is far from overā āPatrick T. Brown, CNN
- āAmericans say theyāre sick of the major parties, but they donāt vote that wayā āSeth Masket, LA Times
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that President Biden has shown heās clearly unfit to run for reelection in 2024, due in large part to his advanced age and the complications that come with it.
- Others contend that Joe Biden is currently the most likely man in America to become the next president, and Republicans would do well not to underestimate his chances in the 2024 election.
- āDemocrats Fear the Truth About Bidenās 2024 Presidential Runā āJulian Epstein, WSJ
- āRepublicans Are Delusional If They Think Biden Will Be Easy to Beatā āRich Lowry, National Review
- āTrumpās rise in GOP polls is great news ā for Bidenā āNY Post Editorial Board
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