Star Wars, but irl?
Image: Pixabay/The DONUT
Yesterday afternoon, a Japanese space company’s attempt at the first commercial Moon landing in history was presumed to have failed when flight controllers on the ground lost contact with the lunar lander before it could touch down.
The unsuccessful mission, partially sponsored by the UAE Space Agency, marks the latest venture by organizations on Earth seeking to establish a foothold on the Moon.
- NASA recently concluded the first mission of its Artemis program, which will eventually see the US government build a space station orbiting the Moon (est. 2025), as well as a series of bases at the lunar south pole (est. 2028).
- China and Russia have announced a joint partnership to build a series of bases that will also be located at the Moon’s south pole. The two countries have said they expect the bases to begin hosting crews of astronauts by the mid-2030s.
🌌 Zoom out: After decades of cooperation, the world’s space agencies are starting to forge their own paths for the future. The International Space Station – which is jointly run by the US, Russia, Canada, and 12 other nations – is currently set to retire in 2031, with no replacement planned. China will be the only country with an operational space station in Earth’s orbit at that point, meaning all other governments will have to rent space either from Beijing or privately-built stations.
And speaking of China – a recent study by the US Defense Innovation Unit, Space Force, and Air Force warned that Beijing is on track to outpace Washington and become the world’s dominant space power “economically, diplomatically, and militarily” by 2045.
📊 Flash poll: Given the recent breakdown in cooperation among space agencies, the creation of new space-focused military agencies, and plans for future Moon bases to be located in the same vicinity: Do you think a military conflict will occur in space – or on the Moon/Mars – within the next three decades?
See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that the US needs to throw conventional ways of thinking out the window when it comes to space tactics, and that America risks losing the ongoing space race if it doesn’t adapt to this reality – and quickly.
- Others contend that a future space battle between the US and China over control of the Moon is definitely within the realm of possibility, but it can be avoided by careful diplomacy between the two nations.
- “A shadow war in space is heating up fast” –Josh Rogin, WaPo
- “A US-China Battle on the Moon Is Possible, and Avoidable” –Adam Minter, Bloomberg
- “US-China rivalry is extending from Earth into space. That poses a challenge to American dominance” –Nectar Gan and Ben Westcott, CNN
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that America can stave off China and hold claim to the title of world’s most dominant space power, but it will take a strategy that correctly harnesses the energy and innovation of US private industry.
- Others contend that America rightly sees that China’s end goal is to claim the Moon as sovereign Chineses territory, and that the US government should do everything in its power to avoid losing space dominance to Beijing.
- “How to Beat China in the New Space Race” –Arthur Herman, WSJ
- “We're in a New Cold War in Space: China Plans to Take Over the Moon” –Gordon G. Chang, Newsweek
- “How to Handle the Growing China Space Threat” –Robert Spalding, National Review
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