đź’¬ Discussion

America’s population keeps getting older: a serious cause for concern?

Friday, Jun 2, 2023

KA

Kyle Nowak|Alex Dobrenko

Image: WSJ/CDC

Just over 3.66 million babies were born in the US last year, essentially unchanged from the previous year and 15% below the recent peak hit in 2007. That’s according to a new CDC report based on data from 99+% of all US birth certificates issued.

🔢 By the numbers… According to demographic experts, developed countries need a fertility rate of at least 2.1 – meaning an average of 2.1 children born to each woman – to maintain their current population over the long term. If rates fall below that level, it will eventually lead to an aging and shrinking populace.

The overall US fertility rate came in at 1.665 last year, virtually unchanged from 2021. In fact, the US fertility rate first fell below 2.1 in 1972 and has remained at or below that level ever since.

  • As a result, the population of Americans aged 65+ is projected to surpass that of children under 18 for the first time in history by 2035, per the US Census Bureau.

đź’Ą The (potential) impact: Some experts predict that America's current demographic trends could soon mean the US lacks enough younger taxpayers to finance programs like Social Security and Medicare, or to pay the interest on the growing national debt.

Others disagree, arguing that the average worker is more productive than in years past – and thus, capable of sustaining a higher population of older folks. Some climate experts also cite data that shows population growth in developed countries is linked to higher overall emissions.

📊 Flash poll: In your opinion, America’s current demographic trends will be ___ for the country.

Very/somewhat good

Very/somewhat bad

Neither good nor bad

See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →

Democratic donkey symbol

Sprinkles from the Left

  • Some commentators argue that, much like climate change, America needs to plan for its ongoing trend towards an older society before it's too late to enact meaningful changes that can ease the transition.
  • Others contend that the massive challenge of aging that’s present in both the US and globally will ultimately spur future innovations to solve those problems, just as the challenges of rising population did in the past.
Republican elephant symbol

Sprinkles from the Right

  • Some commentators argue that America and the rest of the world should seek to increase their birth rates, since long-term economic growth will lead to more environmental protections than the alternative.
  • Others contend that America’s current lack of affordable housing will only be exacerbated as its population ages and a record-high number of seniors start looking for appropriate homes.
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