The Wagner Group’s short-lived rebellion against Russia
Images: WSJ | AFP | Erik Romanenko/Zuma Press | Prigozhin Press Service
On Friday, a private army called the Wagner Group began traveling from Ukraine towards Moscow in an apparent mutiny against the Russian government. The paramilitary group had previously been aligned with Russian President Vladimir Putin since at least 2014, when its troops participated in Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.
Here’s what happened:
- On Friday, in a video posted to his Telegram account, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said the mutiny was launched in response to an attack on his camps in Ukraine by allied Russian military forces earlier that day (though the AP reports Wagner had been amassing troops at the Russian border for weeks). In the same video, Prigozhin also called for the ouster of Russia’s defense minister, whom he accused of lying to Putin and the country’s citizens about Ukrainian aggression and the threat that NATO poses to Russia.
- By Saturday night, ~25,000 Wagner troops had advanced to within 120 miles of Moscow, capturing two major Russian cities, including the southern military stronghold of Rostov-on-Don, along the way. Wagner soldiers experienced limited resistance from Russia’s military – despite Putin ordering them to put down what he called an armed rebellion – which was mainly focused on shoring up defenses around the capital city.
✋ But then… they stopped. Prigozhin pulled the Wagner troops back after announcing a peace agreement with Putin that was reportedly brokered by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko late Saturday night.
As part of the deal, Prigozhin will go into exile in Belarus but won’t face any criminal charges. Wagner soldiers who took part in the mutiny will also be granted full amnesty by the Kremlin, while the remaining ~25,000 troops who didn’t participate will be offered a contract with Russia’s military.
📝 Bottom line: While unsuccessful, the Wagner Group’s two-day rebellion represents the most serious challenge to Putin’s power since he became president in 1999. And many geopolitical analysts argue the incident has permanently damaged Putin’s reputation, both abroad and within Russia.
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Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that Putin is finally realizing that war is inherently an unpredictable and risky business, whose consequences can never be foreseen with clarity — and seldom managed with success, especially by dictators who depend on the illusion of control.
- Others contend that this weekend’s armed mutiny, however short-lived, has undoubtedly diminished Vladimir Putin’s status in the eyes of both the elite and ordinary Russians, which is great news for the West.
- “Putin finally learns the lesson all tyrants learn” –Max Boot, WaPo
- “Putin’s problems aren’t over” –The Guardian Editorial Board
- “The Wagner Mutiny Foreshadows a Russian Defeat” –Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that the Wagner Group’s rebellion underscores how much Putin’s failed attempt to conquer Ukraine has weakened Russia and sapped its military strength.
- Others contend that the Wagner attack shows that neither Putin nor Russia itself are all that stable or predictable, as had been assumed by a vast majority of Western experts – but there’s also no guarantee that a destabilized Russia will be any less dangerous.
- “Russia’s Internal Rebellion” –WSJ Editorial Board
- “Brutal Maniac Fails to Depose Other Brutal Maniac” –Jim Geraghty, National Review
- “Five things to consider regarding Yevgeny Prigozhin's Russian revolt” –Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner
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