Could the Moon’s “Ice Rush” lead to a future space-based conflict?

Over the weekend, an uncrewed Russian spacecraft attempting the country’s first Moon landing since 1976 crashed into the lunar surface and “ceased to exist.” Russia’s space agency was racing against India to become the first country to ever land at the Moon’s south pole, with India’s attempt scheduled to occur within the next three days.

And they’re not the only countries attempting to scope out the location, which is seen as the most promising site for human occupation.

🤔 Why target the Moon’s south pole?... Peer-reviewed research has shown the lunar south pole contains a large amount of frozen water. Major space agencies and companies believe this ice can be harvested and used by humans living in future Moon bases (for both the creation of rocket fuel and use in daily life), instead of shipping out water at the ultra-low cost of ~$10,000 per 16 fl. oz (about one normal-sized water bottle).

And while no countries have successfully landed at the lunar south pole to date, the location could soon become more crowded than the subway at rush hour. In addition to Russia and India, both the US and China – the two biggest space powers in the world – are planning to build bases at the Moon’s south pole by the mid-2030s.

🌕💥 Many countries vying for the same resources on the same land could lead to future conflict. Plus, after decades of cooperation, the world’s space agencies are starting to forge their own separate paths for the future.

• The ISS – which is jointly run by the US, Russia, and 13 other nations – is set to be retired in 2031, with no replacement planned. China will be the only country with an operational space station in Earth’s orbit at that point.
• And, speaking of China: a recent joint study by the US Defense Innovation Unit, Space Force, and Air Force warned that Beijing is on track to outpace Washington and become the world’s dominant space power “economically, diplomatically, and militarily” by 2045.

📊 Flash poll: Given the recent breakdown in cooperation among space agencies, plans for future Moon bases to be located in the same vicinity, and the creation of new space-focused military agencies – do you think a military conflict will occur in space, or on the Moon/Mars, within the next 30 years?

Yes

No

Unsure/other