The first debate of the 2024 presidential election is here
Images: NPR/Getty
At 9 pm ET tonight, eight of the top Republican presidential candidates will gather onstage in Milwaukee for the inaugural debate of the 2024 election cycle.
The candidates – who each needed at least 1% support in certain polls and 40,000+ individual donors ahead of Monday’s deadline to qualify – are (from left to right in the above pic):
- South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
- Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson
- Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley
- Former Vice President Mike Pence
- Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
- North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum
- Former biotech executive Vivek Ramaswamy
Notably absent from the list is former President Donald Trump, who satisfied the requirements months ago but has consistently said he sees little upside in attending primary debates. Instead, his team is planning to post a pre-recorded interview between Trump and Tucker Carlson on X (formerly Twitter) that’ll run concurrently with tonight’s debate, per the AP.
🤔 What do the polls say?... Trump is the current GOP front-runner by a wide margin, per FiveThiryEight’s polling aggregator. Among likely Republican voters, the former president’s base of support is 3.5x larger than second-place Ron DeSantis, at 52% to 15%. And, with the exception of Vivek Ramaswamy at 9%, no other GOP candidate is polling above 5%.
🔵 On the Democratic side… President Biden officially announced his reelection bid in April. Two political activists with no elected experience – Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson – have also thrown their hats into the ring, but are currently polling far behind Biden.
- The DNC has already committed to supporting Biden’s reelection, and isn’t planning to hold any primary debates.
🥊 Head to head: In a hypothetical 2024 matchup, Biden is currently polling slightly behind former President Trump, and slightly ahead (or better) when placed against all other GOP candidates.
📊 Flash poll: If next year’s presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that many GOP candidates’ ideologies and future policy plans have thus far been obscured by discussion about Trump – but tonight will provide a prime opportunity for candidates to lay out their vision to the American public, if they choose to do so.
- Others contend that Trump is plainly showing how he’ll act if granted a second term as president – demanding loyalty to himself, while simultaneously forgoing loyalty to party, or country, or the Constitution.
- “What GOP presidential candidates should talk about other than Trump” –WaPo Editorial Board
- “Trump won’t debate or sign GOP loyalty pledge. After all, he’s only loyal to himself” –Miami Herald Editorial Board
- “What Trump’s Debate Stunt Says to Republican Voters” –Michelle Cottle, NY Times
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Trump clearly thinks he has the GOP nomination all locked up, and Republicans are tempting fate if they decide to roll him out for a third straight time in the 2024 presidential election.
- Others contend that Trump will be the elephant in the room for tonight’s debate, and his strategy of deepening the split in the Republican Party between the Trump base and more independent-leaning voters will likely work well enough to secure the GOP nomination.
- “Trump Ducks the GOP Debate” –WSJ Editorial Board
- “Beyond debate: Schism in the Republican Party” –Hugo Gordon, Washington Examiner
- “In the Debate, DeSantis Should Attack Trump for Not Building the Wall” –Nathan Ehrenreich, National Review
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