The 2024 presidential race continues to take shape

We’re roughly one year away from the next presidential election. And 2024 is starting to come into focus, thanks to new polling data and recent campaign announcements.

🐘 On the Republican side: There are currently four candidates with at least 3% support among GOP voters, per FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregator. That’s down from five the last time we covered this topic in early October.

• Former President Donald Trump (October: 57% → November: 59%)
• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (14% → 13%)
• Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (8% → 8%)
• Former biotech exec Vivek Ramaswamy (7% → 5%)

🫏 On the Democratic side: Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) launched a campaign to challenge President Biden in the 2024 Democratic primary elections just over a week ago, though the DNC has already committed to supporting Biden’s reelection and isn’t planning to hold any primary debates.

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – who initially announced his presidential candidacy as a Democrat in May but consistently polled 45+ points behind Biden – officially switched his party affiliation to Independent last month.

🥊 Head-to-head: Former President Trump would defeat President Biden by a margin of more than 60 electoral votes if next year’s election were held today, per a swing state poll published yesterday by the NYT and Siena College.

• Trump and Biden are effectively tied among voters under 30 – a large shift from 2020, when that age group voted 59%-35% in favor of Biden.
• Biden is polling weaker against Trump than any other potential Democratic candidate, including VP Kamala Harris. A generic, unnamed Dem holds an 8% lead over Trump, while Biden trails Trump by 5%.

📊 Flash poll: If next year’s presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?

• The Republican candidate
• The Democratic candidate
• A third-party candidate
• I’m too young/I don’t vote
• Unsure/other