The 2024 presidential race continues to take shape
Image: Wire Services
We’re roughly one month away from the start of the 2024 presidential election cycle, which officially kicks off with Iowa’s first-in-the-nation GOP caucus on January 15.
And, much like embarking on a summer roadtrip with a broken AC, campaigning is off to a hot start.
🐘 On the Republican side: The Republican National Committee has hosted four debates in as many months, though none have included the current frontrunner, former President Trump. Overall, there are currently four candidates with at least 3% support among GOP voters, per FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregator:
- Former President Donald Trump (November: 59% → December: 59%)
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (13% → 13%)
- Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (8% → 12%)
- Former biotech exec Vivek Ramaswamy (5% → 4%)
🫏 On the Democratic side: Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) has launched a campaign to challenge President Biden in the 2024 Democratic primary elections, though the DNC has already committed to supporting Biden’s reelection and isn’t planning to hold any primary debates. Democratic leadership in some states – including Florida and New Hampshire – also aren’t planning to hold any primary elections, clinching Biden as their nominee.
🥊 Head-to-head: Former President Trump leads President Biden 47%-43% in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, per a new WSJ poll, representing Trump’s largest lead of this election cycle. Voters say they trust Trump over Biden when it comes to securing the border (+30%), taming inflation (+21%), and building the economy (+17%).
- One interesting thing: Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was recently endorsed by the Koch Network and other high-profile GOP donors, currently leads President Biden by a 51%-34% margin in a hypothetical 2024 matchup.
📊 Flash poll: If next year’s presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that Americans who think the country can survive another Trump presidency are fooling themselves, and that Biden represents the only sane choice in a hypothetical 2024 matchup.
- Others contend that Trump is telegraphing the fact that he will attempt to become as close to a dictator as possible if he wins the 2024 election, and argue Democrats and the American public should stop sleeping on this possibility.
- “An Electorate in Revolt Threatens Biden’s Chances” –Charles M. Blow, NY Times
- “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending.” –Robert Kagan, WaPo
- “The Danger Ahead” –David Frum, The Atlantic
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Trump has a clear path to winning the 2024 election if he focuses on America regaining control through strong leadership, which he is more trusted to provide than Biden.
- Others contend that the current rift among non-Trump candidates makes it supremely difficult to unseat him as the GOP frontrunner, and the only hope other candidates have is an adverse health event or early primary victories to reset the narrative.
- “Are Americans in the Mood for More Trump?” –William A. Galston, WSJ
- “Can Anything Change the Trajectory of the GOP Race before Iowa?” –Judson Berger, National Review
- “Ramaswamy doesn't do shame, but he's embarrassing his party” –Washington Examiner Editorial Board
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