Unpacking the results of the Iowa caucus

Former President Trump was the clear winner of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation GOP caucus held Monday evening, earning 51% of the vote with 99+% of votes counted.

• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis placed second with just over 21%, while former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley finished in third with 19%.
• Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who placed fourth at just under 8%, officially suspended his campaign following Monday’s election and endorsed Trump. No other GOP candidate earned more than 1%.

Why it matters: Iowa's first in the nation status means it acts as an initial performance indicator for candidates, similar to a weed-out course in college. But the winner of Iowa’s caucus isn’t typically a reliable predictor of the presidential nominees from either party, according to recent history.

Prior to Monday, the three most recent Republican caucuses in Iowa were won by Ted Cruz (2016), Ron Paul (2012), and Mike Huckabee (2008) – none of whom went on to represent the GOP in the presidential election. The same was true for Democrats in 2020, when Joe Biden placed fourth in Iowa.

• However, Iowa’s caucus is still an important tool for gauging which candidates are in the running to claim victory in November. Over the past five decades, every eventual US president – aside from Bill Clinton (1992) and Biden – has finished within the top three of Iowa’s caucus.

👀 Looking ahead… The next Republican nominating contest is scheduled for January 23 in New Hampshire. The first Democratic presidential primary also takes place in New Hampshire on the same date – though President Biden has opted to withdraw from the ballot to comply with the Democratic National Committee's election calendar, which has South Carolina holding the first primary on February 3.

📊 Flash poll: In your opinion, will former President Trump be the GOP nominee for the 2024 presidential election?

• Yes
• No
• Unsure/other