A look at the New Hampshire primaries
Images: Reuters
Yesterday, New Hampshire held the first Democratic and Republican primaries for the upcoming presidential election, which came eight days after Iowa officially kicked off the nominating process.
On the Republican side: Former President Trump defeated former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by an estimated margin of 55%-43% in New Hampshire, with 91% of votes counted as of early this morning.
This result means Trump earned at least 11 of the state’s 22 delegates – essentially electoral votes for the GOP nomination – bringing his running total to 31, while Haley won at least eight New Hampshire delegates and increased her total to 16. To secure the Republican presidential nomination, candidates need to win a majority of the 2,429 total delegates.
- According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregator, Trump currently leads Haley by a 68%-12% margin among GOP voters across America, with all other major candidates having dropped out of the race.
On the Democratic side: Last year, the Democratic National Committee changed its primary calendar to prioritize South Carolina, as well as battleground states like Michigan and Georgia. But New Hampshire's GOP-controlled government refused to comply, scheduling the state’s Democratic primary to be held first on January 23.
- As a result, the DNC ruled that New Hampshire’s primary is non-binding and won’t award any delegates.
- Biden opted not to appear on the New Hampshire ballot to comply with the DNC’s schedule – though he ended up winning the primary anyways, after running a write-in campaign that beat out Rep. Dean Phillips (MN) and author Marianne Williamson.
🥊 Head-to-head(-to head): Both Trump and Haley lead President Biden by a margin of 3%-5% in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, according to the latest national polls. Trump’s polling lead over Biden remains consistent even after adding third-party independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his ~18% national support to the mix.
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See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that rising economic optimism in America could turn 2024 into a repeat of the 2012 election, when Obama was trailing GOP competitors roughly one year out before improving economic conditions helped him win a second term.
- Others contend that America and other countries are poised to reject Trump and other brands of populism in 2024, having experienced in recent years that populists are worse in power than the people they rail against.
- “Why the 2024 campaign could start looking more like 2012” –Catherine Rampbell, WaPo
- “The 10% World Offers a Sliver of Hope for 2024” –John Micklethwait & Adrian Wooldridge, Bloomberg
- “What if Joe Biden Is Actually Right About 2024?” –Jesse Wegman, NY Times
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that in order to avoid a repeat of the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections, Republicans need to answer some hard questions about Trump, including how to deal with his many haters, how to address his election fraud claims, and what to do if Democrats run a non-Biden candidate.
- Others contend that Trump appears to have a slight edge over Biden heading into November, since Democrats will be less able to stoke anti-Trump sentiment this coming election largely due to Biden’s own corruption baggage.
- “Three questions Trump must answer to win in 2024” –Ian Haworth, Washington Examiner
- “Realism About a Trump Presidency” –Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ
- “How to Think about a Two-Incumbent Election” –Matthew Continetti, National Review
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