A look at Michigan’s primary results
Image: Matthew Hatcher/SOPA Images
Residents from the Mitten State headed to the polls yesterday to raise their presumably warm hands in favor of their preferred presidential candidate, in a primary that could give us a better look into what’ll happen in November. Michigan is seen as a key swing state in 2024; Trump won it in 2016 and Biden won in 2020, both by slim margins.
On the Republican side: Former President Trump defeated former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by an estimated margin of 68%-27%, with 77% of votes reported as of late last night.
This result means Trump earned at least nine of the state’s 55 delegates – essentially electoral votes for the GOP nomination – bringing his running total to 119, while Haley won at least two Michigan delegates and increased her total to 22. To secure the Republican presidential nomination, candidates need to win a majority of the 2,429 total delegates.
- According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregator, Trump currently leads Haley by a 77%-17% margin among GOP voters across America, with all other major candidates having dropped out of the race.
On the Democratic side: Some registered Democrats in Michigan – especially those in the state’s large Arab American community – organized a campaign to vote “uncommitted” in yesterday’s primary instead of backing President Biden, aiming to send a message that Biden is at risk of losing Michigan in November if he doesn’t reverse his support for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.
- While yesterday’s results have yet to be finalized, the “uncommitted” campaign drew the support of at least 75,000 Michigan voters, far higher than the margin by which Hillary Clinton lost the state to Donald Trump in 2016 (-10,704).
Looking ahead… Next Tuesday is Super Tuesday, when fifteen states and one US territory are scheduled to hold their primaries – with roughly a third of all delegates up for grabs.
đź—ł Big picture: When it comes to the November election, Trump leads President Biden by a margin of 3%-7% in a hypothetical matchup, while Haley and Biden are roughly even, per the latest national polls.
📊 Flash poll: If November’s presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that President Biden needs to do more to show the US public that he is fully capable of holding office until age 86, which would take America into uncharted waters in terms of the age of their leader.
- Others contend that those on the left need to stop attacking fellow liberals for criticizing President Biden, which is antithetical to robust public debate, free thought and other principles at the heart of democracy itself.
- “The Challenges of an Aging President” –NY Times Editorial Board
- “Criticizing a president is always okay — even one running against Trump” –Perry Bacon Jr., WaPo
- “The 2024 campaign gets grimmer, with Trump’s extremism on full display alongside concerns over Biden’s age” –Stephen Collinson, CNN
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that while this year’s election is looking like a rematch of 2020, the outcome will likely look very different since President Biden now has to defend his less-than-stellar record from the past four years in office.
- Others contend that the 2024 presidential race is especially difficult to predict because so many variables affect its outcome, including voter turnout, presidential debates (or a lack thereof), and somewhat relevant third-party candidates.
- “Why 2024 Won’t Really Be a Rematch” –Jim Geraghty, National Review
- “Trump vs. Biden: Only One Can Lose” –Karl Rove, WSJ
- “2024’s tale of two bases” –J.T. Young, Washington Examiner
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