💬 Discussion

Super Tuesday is in the books

Wednesday, Mar 6, 2024

Images: Reuters

Presidential nominating contests took place in over a dozen states and the territory of American Samoa yesterday, marking this year’s biggest voting day outside of the general election on November 5.

In total, more than a third of all available delegates for both the Republican and Democratic nominations – essentially electoral votes – were at stake on Super Tuesday.

Here’s how things went:

On the Republican side: Former President Trump entered Super Tuesday with 244 GOP presidential delegates compared to 43 for former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, his only remaining opponent.

  • By the end of last night, Trump had increased his lead over Haley to 757-62 (based on available results) after winning at least 13/16 GOP elections held yesterday, with Haley notching a single win in Vermont. The results place Trump within striking distance of the 1,215 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.
  • Haley is reportedly considering whether to end her campaign after Super Tuesday’s results; she has no events scheduled for beyond that date, and no future TV or radio ads booked.

On the Democratic side: Businessman Jason Palmer won American Samoa's Democratic caucus, while President Biden took the other 15 Democratic nominating contests by a wide margin – though he faced pushback from a few hundred thousand voters in his own party, who cast their ballot for “uncommitted” on Tuesday as a protest vote against Biden’s continued support for Israel's military response in Gaza (similar to 100,000+ voters in Michigan last week).

🥊 Head-to-head(-to-head): Both Trump and Haley lead President Biden by a margin of 3%-6% in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, according to the latest national polls. Trump’s polling lead over Biden remains consistent even after adding third-party independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his ~15% national support to the mix.

📊 Flash poll: Are you planning to vote – or have you already voted – in this year’s presidential primary elections?

See a 360° view of what media pundits are saying →

Democratic donkey symbol

Sprinkles from the Left

  • Some commentators argue that primary elections this year are especially lackluster because for years, polls have consistently shown that America doesn’t want a rematch of Biden versus Trump – which is exactly what we ended up with.
  • Others contend that Trump appears to still have a stranglehold over current GOP voters, and that he has a good chance to win in November since Biden has been unable to adequately address concerns about his age.
Republican elephant symbol

Sprinkles from the Right

  • Some commentators argue that Trump should be firmly favored to beat Biden in November, since his base of support has remained strong since 2020 while Biden’s winning coalition has frayed significantly after an exodus from young, suburban, and Hispanic voters.
  • Others contend that the US is approaching the third consecutive election in which so-called “double haters” constitute a coveted swing-voting demographic – though it may not end up mattering in the end, since Biden supporters are currently far less enthusiastic about their candidate compared to Trump backers.
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