Higher education is facing an uncertain future

Decades ago, college was widely seen as the best pathway to financial success in the US – but today, many schools are facing an uncertain future. Overall enrollment is on the decline, the cost to attend is higher than ever, and a growing number of institutions are closing their doors for good.

• The number of full-time US undergraduate students fell from 11.5 million to 9.5 million between 2010 and 2021, per federal data.
• Average tuition and fees at US universities have increased 73% since 2008, per US News & World Report. (For comparison: US inflation was ~43% over the same period.)
• Around two dozen four-year colleges are expected to shut down each year on average moving forward, which is double the annual average over the past decade.

Driving the trend… Much of the recent decline in college enrollment can be tied to a downturn in US birth rates. From the late 1970s through 1993, birth rates remained largely stable. But they fell nearly 30% over the following three decades, eventually resulting in a smaller pool of young adults applying to college.

• Americans are also increasingly deciding a college degree isn’t worth the cost to obtain it, especially since about two-thirds of undergrad students graduate within six years.

Yes, but: Despite the overall enrollment decline, America’s elite universities – like Ivy League schools or flagship state universities – have continued to attract an overflow of applicants in recent years, driving their acceptance rates to all-time lows.

👀 Looking ahead… America’s ongoing demographics trend is like an Uno deck containing no cards with arrows – not expected to reverse anytime soon. By the year 2038, the pool of potential US college students is projected to be ~25% smaller than it is today.

📊 Flash poll: In your opinion, what’s the No. 1 reason behind the recent decline in US college enrollment?

• It costs too much
• There are better post-grad education options (ex: trade school, coding boot camps)
• More teens are choosing (or are forced) to enter the workforce
• All of the above
• Other/unsure