Americans continue to give birth at record-low rates
Image: Gemini/WSJ/CDC
Fertility rates among women in the US fell again in 2025 to reach a new record low, according to federal data published last week.
By the numbers: The US saw an average of 1.57 births per woman last year, down slightly from 2024 and continuing a post-pandemic decline. The current figure is well below the 2.1 births/woman which experts say is needed to keep a population from shrinking over time.
The decline is occurring at different rates across age groups.
- Younger Americans are driving most of the drop, with fertility rates among teens aged 15-19 falling ~9% year-over-year to a new record low, and the 20-29 age group also seeing declines.
- On the flip side, older Americans have seen slight increases in fertility rates across the ages of 30-44, though it hasn’t been enough to counteract decreases among younger women.
Driving the trend
Experts say fertility rate declines come down to a mix of cost, culture, and caution, with more Americans delaying parenthood as they try to get financially and personally settled.
- The cost of raising a child has climbed sharply, with infant care alone now costing more than in-state college tuition in 38 states plus Washington, D.C.
- Experts also say factors like more demanding careers and the growing intensity of parenting make the decision to have children less appealing for many.
- Finally, widespread concerns about finances, relationships, and overall outlook are leading more people to delay having children until their life situation is more secure.
The US isn’t alone. Most developed countries are already below the 2.1 replacement rate for fertility, including Japan (1.3 births/woman), much of Europe (near 1.5), and South Korea (below 1.0).
- The US, at ~1.6 births, has historically been higher than its developed peers, but that gap is shrinking.
- Meanwhile, developing countries like Nigeria (4.4) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (6.0) still remain well above replacement levels, though many are also seeing those rates decline.
On Capitol Hill: In the US, policymakers are responding to falling fertility rates by making it cheaper to have kids, including efforts to expand the child tax credit beyond $2,000/child.
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Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that even well-conceived policy has mostly failed to lift fertility for good in nations around the world, and that if Trump and the religious right are so concerned about a baby bust they should ease up on hardline immigration policies.
- Others contend that one policy change that could quickly boost US fertility is encouraging more hybrid or work-from-home setups where employees are able to spend more time at home with their spouses, like the mini baby bump seen during Covid.
- “Why solving the baby bust is so difficult” –Eduardo Porter, WaPo
- “Want More Babies? Abolish Commutes.” –Joanne Lipman, NY Times
- “Fears of Falling Birth Rates Causing Population Collapse Are Based on Faulty Assumptions” –Leslie Root, Karen Benjamin Guzzo and Shelley Clark, Mississippi Free Press
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that America’s falling birth rate is an urgent problem that needs to be addressed quickly, since it calls into question the sustainability of our cultures, nations, and modern life itself, and the solution lies in improved gov’t policies as well as a concerted effort from our artists, intellectuals, and pastors.
- Others contend that Americans should be more open to embracing faith in an effort to reverse falling fertility rates, since the recent decline in US birth rates has also been accompanied by a dramatic decline in formal religious participation.
- “Our Urgent Birth Rate Problem” –National Review Editorial Board
- “Government incentives alone won’t reverse the falling birth rate” –Jay Evensen, Deseret News
- “The Great American Baby Shortage” –William A. Galston, WSJ
- The White House can’t make babies great again” –Matthew Lynn, WaPo
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