US states are going back to the political drawing board
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Last week’s Supreme Court ruling that outlawed drawing political maps based on race has poured gasoline on an already heated redistricting fight.
Several GOP-led states are now scrambling to redraw their political maps in an attempt to improve their party’s chances in the November’s midterm elections, with Democrats also threatening to do the same.
How we got here
US states typically redraw their political maps once every decade following new Census Bureau data. But that precedent has been upended this election cycle, beginning last year in Texas where Republicans, backed by President Trump, pushed through a rare mid-decade redistricting effort that could net the GOP up to five additional House seats.
- Democrats have responded in kind, while Republicans in other states have continued the trend.
- California and Virginia followed with their own mid-decade maps aiming to deliver more Democratic House seats, while Republicans in Florida and Ohio also approved new GOP-favored political maps.
Under current federal law, states are allowed to draw political maps to give one party an unfair advantage (aka gerrymandering).
SCOTUS’ latest ruling re-opened the floodgates
Last week’s decision gives states new legal ground to revisit maps with majority-Black, Asian, and Hispanic districts. And some have already begun moving:
- Lawmakers in Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee are planning special sessions to redraw congressional maps ahead of the November midterms, aiming to create new GOP-favored House districts.
- Democrats have threatened to retaliate by splitting up conservative-leaning districts in states like New York and Illinois, boosting the voting power of more liberal, urban districts.
The stakes are high: President Trump says the latest wave of redistricting could deliver as many as 20 additional GOP House seats, while other estimates place the maximum number at nine. Any such swing has the potential to reshape the fight for control of Congress heading into November’s midterms.
📊 Flash poll: Do you support or oppose the recent trend of states redrawing their political maps mid-decade in an effort to gain House seats for their party?
See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that gerrymandering—a practice used and defended by both Democrats and Republicans—is eroding confidence in our democratic system in ways that can no longer be ignored, and urge Congress to act to ensure fairly drawn election maps before US citizens lose faith in the process entirely.
- Others contend that while Democrats should be commended for pushing for fairness in redistricting in recent years, it turns out their approach is no match for Republicans’ maximalist redistricting efforts. Instead, past idealistic efforts are now hampering Democrats’ ability to respond to GOP gerrymanders, because some left-leaning states gave away redistricting power to independent commissions.
- “Democracy must not be defined by gerrymandered districts” –The Republic Editorial Board
- “Democrats Realize Good Government Is Bad Politics When It Comes to Maps” –Reid J. Epstein, NY Times
- “Texas is to blame for nation’s redistricting disaster” –Greenville Reflector Editorial Board
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that the recent trend of redrawing political maps in states across the country is a justified reaction to the major population shifts that occurred during the Covid pandemic, as well as the recent surge of immigration into Democrat-led areas like sanctuary cities.
- Others contend that if Republicans don’t act now to win the redistricting war while they hold the White House, the Senate, the House, and a conservative Supreme Court majority, they risk being voted back into the minority for a decade or more, on the heels of two years of gridlock to close out Trump’s presidency.
- “Recalibration or theft? The case for redistricting done right” –Jacqueline Cartier, Washington Examiner
- “Republicans must win the map war once and for all” –Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) and Morgan Murphy, Fox News
- “Democrat, GOP redistricting wars heat up. Voters will lose.” –Nicole Russell, USA Today
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