Trump admin proposes excluding non-citizens from census
Image: Justin Sullivan
This week, the Trump administration proposed a series of sweeping new changes to how the 2030 US census would count America’s population, in a move that’s drawn pushback from Democrats.
- Under the proposal, anyone who isn’t a US citizen or green card holder would be left out of the population count, with legal residents awaiting green cards not being counted.
- Trump’s plan would also add a citizenship question to the census form while removing questions about race and ethnicity.
Why it matters: The population data collected by the US census is used to determine how all 435 House seats are split up across states, along with deciding each state’s voting districts and share of federal funding for public services. The census has historically counted all US residents, regardless of citizenship status, while some form of race data has been collected in every census since 1790.
Behind the proposed change
The Trump administration argues that the Constitution doesn’t require all noncitizens living in the US to be included in the population used to apportion House seats.
- The administration’s interpretation centers on who qualifies as an inhabitant of a state. Under their interpretation, people without permanent legal status lack the ties to the US needed to be counted as an inhabitant.
- The administration also views race and ethnicity questions as sensitive and less useful to the census’s primary task of counting the population, and argues that removing them would make forms easier to complete and could lead to a more complete count.
On the other hand: Opponents of Trump’s proposal, including Democratic lawmakers, point to the 14th Amendment’s language calling for House seats to be apportioned according to the “whole number of persons in each State,” without distinguishing based on citizenship or immigration status.
- Civil rights groups and census researchers say removing race and ethnicity questions could make it harder to enforce anti-discrimination laws in redistricting, equal-employment protections, and other areas like healthcare.
- Critics also warn that Trump’s plan to collect citizenship information could discourage some immigrants and mixed-status households from responding, potentially making the census count less accurate.
The potential impact: While the exact effect of Trump’s proposed change is currently unclear, Pew Research in 2020 found removing unauthorized immigrants from the census apportionment count would’ve caused three states—CA, FL, and TX—to lose a House seat.
Looking ahead… The public can weigh in on the proposal through Oct. 13, after which the administration will review the feedback before moving toward a final rule. Any such change is expected to face legal challenges, with the next administration also likely having an opportunity to weigh in before the next US census in 2030.
📊 Flash poll: Do you think the US census should count all residents, including immigrants living in the country illegally, or should it only count US citizens and green card holders?
See a 360° view of what pundits are saying →
Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that the Trump administration’s efforts to exert greater political control over the Census Bureau threaten the accuracy and credibility of key data for political representation and voting rights enforcement. They also say Congress needs to protect the census from partisan interference before key decisions about the 2030 count are finalized.
- Others contend that efforts to exclude undocumented immigrants from the census threaten to discourage participation among entire immigrant communities, producing an inaccurate count that distorts political representation and federal funding, and also reinforces the need to protect the process before mistrust becomes difficult to reverse.
- “American democracy depends on the census. Trump is undermining it” –Danah Boyd, The Guardian
- “Accuracy in the 2030 census? Don’t count on it.” –Times Union Editorial Board
- “Americans Are Done With Being Put in Racial Boxes” –Justin Fox, Bloomberg
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Democrats’ resistance to stricter immigration enforcement is partly driven by the political benefits of keeping undocumented immigrants in blue states, since they count toward congressional representation even though they can’t legally vote in federal elections—helping those states preserve political power as more legal residents move elsewhere.
- Others contend that counting undocumented immigrants in the census rewards Democratic-santuary states with additional House seats and Electoral College votes, which gives them more political representation based partly on people who can’t legally vote, with Dems taking advantage of a loophole that should be closed.
- “Why won’t Democrats moderate on immigration? Here’s a clue.” –Marc A. Thiessen, WaPo
- “How Democrats game the census for power” –Hugo Gurdon, Washington Examiner
- “Fix the flawed U.S. census” –David N. Bossie, Washington Times
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