America turns up the economic pressure on Iran
Image: Chip Somodevilla
President Trump on Saturday publicly rejected Iran’s latest proposal for a seven-day ceasefire, as the two sides continue negotiating a potential end to the war.
- Iran’s proposal called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting nuclear talks within a week, in return for the US lifting its naval blockade, removing sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and restoring a ceasefire.
- But Trump said the proposal is “not the deal that I want to make” and its terms are “what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago," with an ongoing US economic and naval blockade leaving Iran in a weaker position.
A different pressure campaign
The US has recently leaned more heavily on economic pressure as strikes have slowed, launching a global effort to further isolate Iran from international trade. Treasury Department officials have reportedly met with 50+ countries this month to deliver a straightforward warning: Continuing to do business with Tehran could jeopardize access to the US financial system.
That campaign is seems to be producing some concrete changes:
- Oman has banned Iranian airlines from its airspace, while the UAE has banned Iranian flights and restricted Iran’s largest commercial bank.
- Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey have blocked flights from Iranian airlines, while Turkey also revoked the license of Iran’s Bank Mellat.
- The UK plans to stop renewing waivers that allow sanctioned Iranian banks to operate, putting the future of Bank Melli’s London subsidiary in doubt.
These restrictions have built on the current US naval blockade restricting Iran’s ability to export oil, further choking Tehran’s economic revenue.
China and Russia are the major exceptions so far, with both countries continuing to maintain economic ties with Tehran.
On the military front: The US has scaled back its strikes in recent weeks, in part because the administration wants to preserve dwindling munitions for other potential conflicts. President Trump has reportedly told aides he expects the US to renew its bombing campaign after November’s midterm elections, though insiders caution those views could shift as the situation changes.
Where Iran stands
Iranian mediators have reportedly acknowledged the country’s worsening economic situation and presented several proposals to end the war with the US. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has essentially run Iran since the war began, has shown no indication that it plans to accept Washington’s demands, and says it’s prepared for a long war.
Looking ahead… Trump said Sunday that he expects US negotiators to hold more talks with Iran this week, potentially as early as Monday. US officials have reportedly told Iran and mediators that Trump won’t lift the economic pressure on Iran until it agrees to more favorable terms with Washington.
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Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that the war with Iran may be making the nuclear threat more dangerous rather than eliminating it, since destroying parts of Iran’s program without preventing it from being rebuilt gives the country a stronger incentive to pursue a nuclear deterrent. They also say that the conflict is also exposing weaknesses in US military preparedness by rapidly depleting ammunition stockpiles that were already strained by decades of underinvestment.
- Others contend that calling the conflict with Iran something other than a war allows the administration to downplay a military campaign whose costs are increasingly reaching Americans at home. They argue that acknowledging the full financial and economic toll, from military spending and depleted weapons stockpiles to higher energy and consumer prices, is necessary for the public to judge whether continuing the conflict is worth the cost.
- “Ignoring Nukes and Drones Won’t Make Them Go Away” –Justin Fox, Bloomberg
- “A War Without the Name: The Billion-Dollar Cost of America’s Iran Conflict” –Timothy Hopper, Common Dreams
- “Iran Exposed How Vulnerable Our Bases Are” –W.J. Hennigan, NY Times
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Iran is counting on political pressure surrounding the US midterms to weaken America’s resolve and bring the conflict to an end before Tehran is forced to make major concessions. They argue that the US needs a clear and consistent strategy for sustaining pressure on Iran, since repeated shifts between military threats and diplomacy could convince its leaders that they can simply wait Washington out.
- Others contend that limited military strikes and economic sanctions will not force Iran’s leaders to make major concessions as long as they believe they can continue paying the forces that keep the regime in power. They argue that the US and its allies need to more aggressively target the oil revenue and military capabilities that sustain that control, convincing Iran’s leaders that continued resistance threatens their ability to remain in power.
- “Trump’s U.N. Message to the World” –WSJ Editorial Board
- “America needs to destroy what really sustains the Iranian regime” –Lewis Libby & Jason Fields, WaPo
- “Victory, not new regulations, will lower gas prices” –Las Vegas Review-Journal Editorial Board
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