Good morning. In today’s edition:

• 🔴🔵 New polls suggest a generational voting shift
• 📸 Insurance companies + aerial photography
• 🌒 Monday’s solar eclipse, by the numbers

… and more.

🚀⏰ Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be a ~5.19-minute read (1,381 words).

P.S. First time reading? Subscribe here for free.

“Opportunities multiply as they are seized.”

–Sun Tzu (544 B.C. – 496 B.C.)

The upcoming presidential election could see a historic realignment of the political affiliations associated with each age bracket in America, with President Biden increasingly attracting older voters and former President Trump doing the same for younger folks, according to a pair of recent polls.

• Last week, a national survey from NPR/Marist College/PBS Newshour showed Trump leading Biden by a 2% margin among millennial and Gen Z voters (ages 18-43), while Biden was ahead among Gen X, baby boomers, and the Silent Generation (ages 44+).
• A Fox News poll last month found Trump ahead of Biden by an 18-point margin among voters under 30 in a head-to-head matchup, with Trump’s lead extending to 21 points in that age group when third-party candidates were included.

Both polls represent a significant change from past elections. If the latest figures hold true in November, it would reverse a decades-long trend in which Democratic presidential candidates have overwhelmingly won young voters, and Republicans have done the same with the other end of the electorate.

• In their first matchup four years ago, Biden beat Trump by an estimated 20+-point margin among US voters under the age of 30.

Yes, but… Some polling experts say the surprising survey data in recent months could be a sign that polls are once again struggling to measure the presidential race accurately, after being off in the previous two presidential elections.

📸 Big picture: Biden and Trump are essentially deadlocked for the popular vote on a national level – though recent polling suggests Trump is currently leading or tied in six of the seven key swing states experts say will likely decide the White House race.

📊 Flash poll: If November’s presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?

• The Republican candidate
• The Democratic candidate
• A third-party candidate
• I’m too young/I don’t vote
• Unsure/other

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🇷🇺🇨🇳 Russia and China committed to deepening their alliance amid the Ukraine war. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Beijing yesterday, during which the two officials pledged to boost cooperation and trade between their nations. China has officially maintained a position of neutrality over Russia’s war in Ukraine, but has offered an economic lifeline to help Moscow avoid some Western sanctions. While the US hasn’t accused China of providing military assistance to Moscow, President Biden has criticized Beijing for providing assistance he says is aiding Russia’s ability to wage war.

🇨🇭 Europe’s top human rights court delivered a landmark climate change verdict. The European Court of Human Rights ruled yesterday that Switzerland’s government violated human rights law by failing to achieve its CO2 emissions targets, marking the first such ruling by an international court. The decision sets a legal precedent in the Council of Europe’s 46 member states, with direct implications for dozens of ongoing climate lawsuits against governments and corporations.

🇭🇹 Haiti’s leaders reached a deal to form a transitional government. As part of the agreement, a nine-member council will temporarily replace outgoing PM Ariel Henry, who resigned last month after serving as Haiti’s de facto ruler since former President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in 2021. The deal, which requires approval from Haiti's outgoing government, also includes plans to hold future presidential elections for the first time since 2016.

Governments and superheroes aren’t the only ones with sophisticated surveillance (looking at you, Batman). Nearly every home in the US is being photographed by companies connected to the insurance industry, often without the owner’s knowledge.

Where the pics are coming from: Drones, manned airplanes, and high-altitude balloons. And, similar to when a comedian does crowdwork, no place is safe – the industry-funded Geospatial Insurance Consortium has an imagery program it says covers 99% of the US population, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The photos are sorted by computer models to spot damaged roof shingles, yard debris, and undeclared swimming pools or trampolines – then used to calculate rates or decide not to renew policies altogether.

• Privacy advocates are none too happy about the process, which is compounded by many insurers who won’t let affected customers look at or dispute the photos, per the WSJ.
• Insurers say customers agree to home inspections when they buy a policy, and that photographing properties from the sky is less intrusive than home visits used in the past.

📸 Big picture: Insurers are attempting to de-risk portfolios and recover from some of their worst years in history. US home and auto insurance companies racked up $32.2 billion in net losses over the first nine months of 2023, $7.6 billion worse than in the same period a year earlier – and ~$30 billion worse than in 2021.

+Go deeper: Location, claims history, credit score, pets, and rebuild costs also influence rates. Dive into the process here.

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If the sports drink industry was modeled after Game of Thrones, Gatorade would be like Prince Oberyn (Pedro Pascal) at the start of his last fight – on top of the Mountain… at least for now.

The Pepsi-owned brand currently owns 63% of the US sports drink market, with Coke-owned brands Powerade and Bodyarmor coming in second and third, respectively (they account for ~25% combined).

But there’s a chance the order doesn’t stay that way much longer, as large conglomerates invest and branch out into new products:

• Unilever, a multinational consumer goods company, bought hydration-mix company Liquid IV in 2020 for an undisclosed amount.
• Nestle Health Science bought hydration tablet maker Nuun in 2021.
• Emerging brands are also taking aim at the king. On Pepsi’s Q3 earnings call in February, CEO Ramon Laguarta called out influencer Logan Paul’s Prime Energy as one brand stealing market share from Gatorade.

In response: Gatorade has branched out with new products: Gatorade Zero Sugar, immune support tablets, a Pedialyte lookalike called Gatorlyte, a caffeinated spinoff called Fast Twitch, and an unflavored alkaline water, which launched in February. The company is currently gaining share in every hydration category it has products, per market research firm Circana.

🥊 Zoom out: Gatorade is currently in the final stage of The Consolidation Curve, where companies must defend their market-leading positions, within a company that’s also in the final stage of the curve (Pepsi) – a Russian nesting doll or Inception-type situation that also brings BoJack Horseman to mind.

💬 Quoted… “In the worst-case scenario, democracy and social order could collapse.”

• Japan’s largest newspaper and its biggest telecommunications company published a not-so-cheery joint manifesto on Sunday calling for immediate government legislation to restrict generative AI. The two companies, which are among Japan’s most influential in terms of government policy, said AI tools can pose a danger to democracy and civil society when they’re programmed to seize users’ attention without regard for morals or accuracy. Separately, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon predicted that AI will have a “transformational” impact on society on par with major inventions like the printing press or steam engine, in his annual letter to shareholders on Monday.

🌒👀 Stat of the Day: Monday’s total solar eclipse was billed as having a draw similar to two dozen Super Bowls happening all at once – and it lived up to the hype. An estimated 3.7 million Americans spent ~$1.6 billion to travel and see the eclipse, internet traffic fell by as much as 60% along the path of totality on Monday afternoon, and Google searches for “my eyes hurt” set a new all-time high by a factor of 2.5x during the eclipse.

🤔 Did You Know?... The world record for most generations alive in a single family is seven. US resident Augusta Bunge was 109 years old when her great-great-great-great grandson was born in 1989.

📰 Worth a Read: The radical transformation of the avocado → (The Hustle)

• ☝️ You’re looking at some of the finalists for the 13th annual Pink Lady Food Photographer of the Year contest, which featured thousands of entries from 65 different countries.

BUSINESS & MARKETS

in partnership with Kickresume

• 💰 US markets closed mixed ahead of this morning’s CPI report (S&P: +0.1%; Dow: -0.02%; Nasdaq: +0.3%). | ✈️ Boeing’s jet deliveries fell last quarter to its lowest level since mid-2021.
• 🚂 Norfolk Southern agreed to pay $600 million to settle lawsuits brought in connection with the company’s toxic train derailment in Palestine, Ohio, early last year.
• 💬🤝 WordPress.com owner Automattic is acquiring Beeper, the company behind the iMessage-on-Android solution that Apple eventually removed from the App Store, for a reported price of $125 million.

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SPORTS, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

• 🎓 The National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics, an athletic governing body for ~83,000 student-athletes at mostly small colleges, banned transgender women from competing in women's sports in a 20-0 vote.
• ☢️ The new Fallout TV series will premiere on Prime Video later tonight, one day earlier than expected, Amazon announced.
• 💼📲 LinkedIn unveiled a new verification process for job recruiters that’s aimed at preventing employment scams.

SCIENCE, SPACE & EMERGING TECH

in partnership with Meowtel

• 🌎♨️ The Earth just experienced its warmest March on record (dating back to 1850), marking the 10th month in a row with a new record-high temperature, per the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
• 💩 Fecal transplants can be used to improve the symptoms of early-stage Parkinson’s patients, according to a new study.
• ⚛️ Peter Higgs, the Nobel Prize-winning UK scientist who first proposed the Higgs boson particle, passed away at the age of 94.

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MISCELLANEOUS

• ⚖️ The parents of the Oxford, Michigan, school shooter were both sentenced to 10-15 years in prison for involuntary manslaughter yesterday; they’re the first parents in the US to be held criminally responsible for a mass shooting committed by their child.
• 🏭 The Environmental Protection Agency issued a final rule requiring 200+ chemical plants across the country to curb emissions of two chemicals that can cause cancer.
• ⚖️🏥 Arizona’s Supreme Court issued a ruling yesterday upholding a 160-year-old law that bans abortion in all cases except when it's necessary to save the mother's life; implementation of the ban – one of the strictest abortion limits in the country – will be delayed for at least two weeks. (From the Left | From the Center | From the Right)

CLICKBAIT

• ☀️🌍 How an eclipse 3,000 years ago changed the ancient world.

Editor's note: The links in yesterday's poll results were broken due to a bug in our system, so we're running the section again today.

On Monday, we covered the Biden admin’s new plan aimed at wiping out large amounts of federal student loan debt held by Americans who fall under certain categories.

❓ Our question to you: Do you agree with the Biden admin’s new plan to forgive an unspecified amount of student loan debt for American borrowers who meet specific criteria?

• 👍 Yes: 38%
• 👎 No: 49%
• 🤷 Unsure/other: 13%

Click here to read some of the best longform responses.

+Note on sample size: We received 4,189 votes and 368 longform responses.

Tad Fendley, a small-town farmer from Amity, Arkansas, wasn't the only one on the farm to excitedly watch the solar eclipse on Monday.

• His pet chicken Gertrude also got a look at the astrological wonder – safely, of course – behind her own tiny pair of solar glasses.  
• The chicken was so eggcited watching the eclipse that she even laid an egg🥚.

How it works: We provide an incorrect stat. Then you guess whether the actual number is over or under the given value.

• 🦔 20,000: Average number of spikes on a porcupine
• 🎥 60%: Percentage of movies that are rated R
• 🦘 7: Number of different kangaroo breeds

👆 Check out the referral prizes you can get, just for introducing people you know to little old us. 

What to do: Copy your unique link below, then send it to anyone who you think would like the DONUT. Once you hit each milestone, you'll get an email with a link to claim your prize.

Start referring.👇

1. 🦔 Over, 30,000
2. 🎥 Under, 57%
3. 🦘 Under, 4