Good morning. In today’s edition:

• 🤔 What happens when AI models run out of training data?
• ⚖️🖼️ The US government sues Adobe
• 🌭 America’s hot dog summer

… and more.

🚀⏰ Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be a ~4.80-minute read (1,279 words).

P.S. We’ll be off tomorrow for Juneteenth, see you back here on Thursday.

“If we will be quiet and ready enough, we shall find compensation in every disappointment.”

–Henry David Thoreau (1817-1862)

Artificial intelligence systems from tech giants like OpenAI, Google, and Meta could soon exhaust their supply of what makes them smarter and more powerful – trillions of human-written words shared freely online.

According to a new peer-reviewed study from research group Epoch AI, tech companies are projected to use up the entire supply of publicly available AI training data written by humans sometime between 2026 and 2032.

There is a silver lining: The study paints a less dire picture than Epoch AI’s first estimate two years ago, when the research group predicted a hard 2026 cutoff.

• Scientists say the improved forecast can be attributed to new techniques enabling developers to make better use of available human-written data, like “overtraining” models on the same sources multiple times.

Why is human-generated data so important? Researchers have consistently found that training AI systems on AI-generated (or “synthetic”) data causes the model’s output quality to worsen. Scientists liken this phenomenon to a game of telephone, where the original information is often distorted during the process.

Yes, but: Despite the known flaws in using synthetic data to train AI systems, many companies still see potential in this approach. Nvidia last week unveiled a new platform called Nemotron-4, which the tech giant says can create robust synthetic training data for AI systems in place of human-generated content.

👀 Looking ahead… In the short term, major AI players appear focused on securing high-quality sources of human-generated data to train their large language models. See: recent licensing deals with Reddit, the Associated Press, and News Corp.

• In the longer term, analysts predict the industry’s current development trajectory – increasing the amount of human-written training data fed into models by a factor of 2.5x/year – will experience significant slowdown, since companies will eventually run out of new blogs, books, news articles, and social media posts to use for AI training.

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🇷🇺🇰🇵 Russian President Vladimir Putin is making his first visit to North Korea in 24 years. The two-day trip, which starts today, is expected to see Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un sign a new security pact that Russian officials say is aimed at ensuring greater stability in northeast Asia. Western officials are concerned the expected agreement would enable Pyongyang to provide Moscow with weapons to fuel Russia's war effort in Ukraine, though both countries have denied the accusation.

🇨🇳 China's nuclear stockpile is reportedly growing faster than any other country. An annual report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute found China’s nuclear stockpile grew from 410 nuclear warheads last January to 500 as of this year. The report also found China is on track to develop as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as the US and Russia by the end of the decade, though Beijing’s overall nuclear stockpile is expected to remain more than 5x lower than both countries.

💥 Israel-Hamas war: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu disbanded the country’s war cabinet following the departure of Benny Gantz, one of its three non-observing members. The move means most decisions regarding Israel’s war against Hamas will fall to the country’s larger security cabinet, with PM Netanyahu holding smaller forums for sensitive matters. The war cabinet’s dissolution came one day after Israel’s military announced a tactical pause in fighting against Hamas to facilitate aid trucks trying to access Gaza's north-south highway.

The US government on Monday sued Premiere Pro- and- Photoshop-maker Adobe and two of its execs for harming consumers by allegedly hiding expensive fees and making it difficult to cancel subscriptions.

Per the US, Adobe pushes users to sign up for its Annual Paid Monthly plan, which, if not canceled within the first 14 days, incurs a prorated cancellation fee, sometimes totaling hundreds of dollars. The government says Adobe hides important terms in fine print as well as behind text boxes and hyperlinks, and clearly discloses the fees only when subscribers try to cancel.

Speaking of which… The US also alleges that Adobe has violated federal laws by putting users trying to cancel a subscription through an “onerous and complicated” process that’s more difficult to navigate than Rainbow Road at 150cc. Adobe says it will fight the lawsuit.

Big picture: In 2012, Adobe shifted its sales model from selling lifetime use licenses – pay once, use whenever – to software as a service (SaaS) – pay monthly or yearly, lose access if you cancel. Subscription-based revenue accounted for $14.22 billion of Adobe’s $19.41 billion in total revenue last year, per the complaint.

⚖️ The US government is working to bring Force-like balance to the consumer signup/cancellation process. In March 2023, the FTC proposed a rule that would mandate recurring subscriptions are as easy to cancel as to sign up. It’s currently stuck in review, though many analysts predict an implementation date of later this year.

“The mental health crisis among young people is an emergency – and social media has emerged as an important contributor.”

• In an opinion article published in the NY Times yesterday, US Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy called on Congress to give social media companies all the smoke and require the display of tobacco-like warning labels alerting users to potential harms the platforms pose to adolescent mental health. Dr. Murthy cited recent data showing adolescents who spend 3+ hours/day on social media face double the risk of anxiety and depression symptoms, with average social media use among Americans in this age group standing at 4.8 hours/day (as of summer 2023). Murthy also pointed to evidence from tobacco studies that show warning labels can increase awareness and change consumer behavior.

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☕ Stat of the Day: While describing your morning cup of joe as “life-saving” might seem a touch hyperbolic, new research suggests the descriptor is more accurate than you may think – especially for folks with more sedentary lifestyles. Chinese researchers discovered coffee drinkers who sit for 6+ hours per day have a 24% reduced risk of all-cause mortality compared to non-coffee drinkers who are sedentary. Additionally, the study found people who drink at least two cups of coffee per day have a 33% lower overall risk of mortality than non-coffee drinkers.

🤔 Did You Know? Out of the 50 verified oldest living people on Earth, 21 live in Japan (which also ranks as the world’s second largest coffee market🤔).

📰 Worth a Read: The Bizarre Scientific Experiment That Helped Bryson DeChambeau Win the US Open → (WSJ)

• ☝️ Kevin, a three-year-old Great Dane from Iowa, was recently declared the world’s tallest living dog by Guinness World Records; Kevin is three feet and two inches tall on all four paws.

BUSINESS & MARKETS

in partnership with The Motley Fool

• 💰 US markets closed up across the board (S&P: +0.8%; Dow: +0.5%; Nasdaq: +1.0%); the S&P notched its 30th record close of the year. | 💻 The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, an ETF with $71 billion AUM, is acquiring $10+ billion worth of Nvidia shares while simultaneously cutting back on Apple.
• 🏛️ The US Department of Treasury and the IRS unveiled a plan to "close a major tax loophole" used by large, complex partnerships; the move could raise an estimated $50+ billion in tax revenue over the next 10 years.
• 🍏 Apple is shutting down Apple Pay Later, its buy now, pay later service (BNPL); moving forward, the company plans to present BNPL offers from third-party providers to users checking out with Apple Pay. | 🍔🤖 McDonald's is ending its AI drive-thru ordering partnership with IBM.

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SPORTS, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

• 🏀🏆 The Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 last night to win a record-setting 18th NBA title; Celtics guard/forward Jaylen Brown was named Finals MVP.
• 📝 YouTube is experimenting with Notes, a crowdsourced feature that lets users add context to videos.
• ♟️ The 2024 Fide World Corporate Chess Championship has concluded; Chessify took home the title, claiming the moniker of “smartest company in the world.” | ⚾ Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts, the betting favorite for NL MVP heading into this week, suffered a broken hand that’s expected to sideline him for 6-8 weeks. | ⚾ Men’s College World Series: Tennessee and Texas A&M are both one win away from a finals berth, while Virginia and North Carolina St. were the first two teams eliminated.

SCIENCE, SPACE & EMERGING TECH

in partnership with Commons

• 🦧 The Y chromosome in primates – including humans – is evolving more rapidly than the X chromosome, new research on six primate species suggests.
• 🍓🌕 The upcoming Strawberry Moon, a full moon that’ll show up Thursday-Sunday with a peak Friday evening, is expected to appear larger than any full moon in years, due to its proximity to the summer solstice.
• 🧠💔 Electrical brain stimulation delivered via a ~$500 headset for a few minutes/day can help ease the negative emotions from severe heartbreak (clinically known as love trauma syndrome), per a new limited study.

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MISCELLANEOUS

• 🌿 Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) issued a mass pardon for 175,000+ marijuana convictions, covering an estimated 100,000 people.
• ⚖️ George Norcross, a Democratic power broker in New Jersey and brother of current US Rep. Donald Norcross (D-NJ), was indicted on racketeering charges.
• 📝 President Biden is expected to announce a new immigration program later today that would lift the threat of deportation and offer work permits to the ~500,000 undocumented immigrants in the US who are married to US citizens. (From the Left | From the Center | From the Right)

CLICKBAIT

• 😴 How to take the perfect nap.

Here are five stats from this past week that made our team go “whoa.” Hopefully you will, too.

• 👩‍🔬 Women accounted for 41% of all global researchers in 2022, up from 29% two decades earlier. (Read more)
• 🏟️ In the early 1990s, 7% of stadiums in US men’s major sports leagues were named after corporate sponsors; today, that figure is 87%. (Read more)
• 💰🇨🇳 The combined market valuation of Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia ($9.2 trillion) surpassed the value of the entire Chinese stock market excluding Hong Kong (~$9.0 trillion) earlier this month. (Read more)
• 🪙🗑️ Americans throw away up to $68 million worth of US coins each year. (Read more)
• 🌭 Hot dog summer is in full swing: The US consumes ~818 hot dogs per second between Memorial Day and Labor Day each year, on average. (Read more)

Yesterday, we covered how the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy (DACA), which protects immigrants who were brought illegally to the US as children from being deported, faces an uncertain future as it celebrates its 12th birthday.

❓ Our question to you: In general, do you support the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy (DACA)?

• 👍 Yes: 55%
• 👎 No: 28%
• 🤷 Unsure/other: 17%

Click here to read the most thoughtful longform responses.

+Note on sample size: We received 3,596 votes and 385 longform responses.

Helen Antenucci started driving trains for the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority in 1995. Nearly 30 years later, she just claimed the Guinness World Record for the oldest train operator in the world. 

• I had five daughters," she told Guinness World Records. "It was a way to get me out of the house and get some peace and quiet."
• Helen's story was submitted to Guinness by a coworker on her behalf. The humble driver stated "I don't know what all the fuss is about. I get up every day and do what I love to do. Not many people get to say that at my age."

❓ Trivia: Who created The Sopranos?

🤠 True or False?... A duel between three people is called a truel.

🤔 Riddle Me This: What kind of coat is best put on when wet?

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❓ Trivia: David Chase

🤠 T/F: True

🤔 Riddle: A coat of paint