Good morning. In today’s edition:

• 🗳️ The 2024 election is officially underway
• 📱 Jail tablets
• 👍👎 AI lie detectors

… and more.

🚀⏰ Ready, Set, Go: Today’s news should be a ~5.19-minute read (1,383 words).

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“Honesty is the first chapter in the book of wisdom.”

–Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)

We’re just under two months away from the 2024 election – but for some voters, Election Day is already here.

North Carolina, the first state scheduled to start mailing out absentee ballots to voters, will begin doing so later today, kicking off the nationwide rollout of mail-in ballots.

• A handful of states will follow North Carolina’s lead over the next few weeks, while ballots for overseas and military voters will be sent out by September 21.
• Outside of mail-in ballots, five states are set to begin in-person early voting later this month: Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Virginia, Vermont, and Illinois.

These initial votes come as both presidential candidates tout new policy proposals. In an economic speech on Wednesday, VP Kamala Harris proposed increasing the top long-term capital gains tax rate to 28% – up from 23.8% currently, but lower than President Biden’s suggestion of 39.6%. Harris also said she wants to quadruple the tax on stock buybacks to 4%, and expand the small business tax credit tenfold to $50,000.

• The following day, former President Trump unveiled a new batch of economic policy proposals, including plans to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. He also proposed the creation of a government efficiency commission aimed at eliminating wasteful federal spending, which would potentially be led by Elon Musk.

Polling update: Harris is currently leading Trump by a slight margin in polling aggregators from RealClearPolitics (+1.8%), FiveThirtyEight (+3.2%), and The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (+4.1%). Harris is also currently projected to defeat Trump by a 273-265 margin in the Electoral College based on individual state polls, per RCP.

• Professor Allan Lichtman, a historian who has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 US presidential elections, said yesterday that he believes Harris will win in November.

As for Congress: All 435 House seats and 33/100 Senate seats are up for election this year. According to 270toWin, Republicans are projected to win 209 House seats compared to 205 for Democrats, with the remaining 21 seats rated as toss-ups. In the Senate, Republicans are projected to hold 50 seats after the election compared to 48 for Democrats, with the final two seats being toss-ups.

Looking ahead… The first presidential debate between Trump and Harris is scheduled for next Tuesday at 9 pm ET on ABC News.

📊 Flash poll: If you were going to vote in the 2024 presidential election today, which candidate would you choose?

• Former President Trump
• Vice President Harris
• A third-party candidate
• Not planning to vote/Too young to vote
• Unsure/other

Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors has been studying stocks for decades. He’s a regular on CNBC, and on a Bloomberg podcast said the S&P 500 could triple by 2030. He cited AI’s effect on the economy as part of his reasoning.

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🌎 Dozens of countries signed the first-ever legally binding international treaty on AI. Yesterday, several dozen countries – including the US, EU, UK, and Israel – signed a treaty called the AI Convention, which requires countries to implement and enforce safeguards protecting against AI-related threats to human rights, democracy, and the rule of law. It also calls on countries to prevent AI from being used to spread misinformation, and require that AI products notify users they’re working with AI and not humans.

🇨🇳 China pledged $51 billion for infrastructure projects in African countries. The commitment, spread over three years, will create at least 1 million jobs and roughly quadruple the number of Chinese-backed infrastructure projects in Africa. China, the largest creditor to many African nations and the world’s biggest debt collector, will focus its new investment on developing green technology, transportation, agriculture, and military projects in Africa.

🇳🇴 Norway set a world record for proportional EV sales. A new report by the Norwegian Road Federation found EVs made up a record-high 94.3% of all new car registrations across the country in August. According to the report, Norway’s record-high EV sales can largely be attributed to local tax benefits allowing EVs to be priced competitively against gas-powered vehicles. Norway is aiming for zero-emission vehicles to make up 100% of all new car sales in 2025, or ten years ahead of the EU’s overall goal.

In July, the FCC voted to slash the rates and fees companies can charge for prison or jail phone calls and impose price caps on previously unregulated video calls.

The impact: A 15-minute phone call that previously cost $11+ will now be capped at $0.90 – a move that’s estimated to save the incarcerated, their families, and legal teams $386 million. The FCC’s new rules also prevent correctional facilities from taking a slice of the revenue from calls; this revenue stream generated $446 million for facilities in 2022.

In response, many correctional facilities are turning into Oprah and doling out tablets to inmates (“you get a tablet, you get a tablet!”). Prison officials say the FCC price caps won't cover the costs of security services and call surveillance, leading many correctional facilities to implement a tablet system to bring in more revenue.

How it works:

• Facilities hold bidding processes to select their tablet provider. The provider gives the tablets to prisoners for free, but charges individually for premium features such as e-messaging, music, e-books, and movies – usually paid for by family members.
• And similar to airport shops, these providers charge prices significantly higher than what could be found outside of confinement. Prison facilities typically take a 10%-50% cut of certain tablet services as part of a rev-share agreement.

💰 Zoom out: The US government spends $80.7 billion each year operating public prisons and jails, with an additional $3.9 billion allocated to pay private companies to operate private prisons.

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“Any organization that deals with human beings… can use this.”

Cal Lightman from Lie to Me could soon have some serious competition. A growing number of startups are working on lie detection technology powered by AI that could potentially be used on corporate earnings calls, Zoom interviews, for law enforcement purposes, etc.

One such startup, CyberQ – which was cofounded by former CIA officer Phil Houston (who wrote the book on detecting deception; his techniques are used by US intelligence agencies, businesses, and billionaires) – uses generative AI to parse transcripts and statements and can reportedly detect misleading statements with 92% accuracy.

• “Q”, the company’s chatbot, was trained on hundreds of verified examples of truths and lies, including police interviews with OJ Simpson, testimony from Enron CEO Jeffrey Skilling’s infamous congressional appearance, and statements from the management of Wirecard, a German company that imploded in scandal.
• Other companies building AI-powered lie detectors include: Arche AI, Coyote AI, and Deceptio.AI, which all claim to detect lies with varying degrees of accuracy.

🖐️ But… People have been unsuccessfully trying to build a reliable lie detection tool ever since Eve tricked Adam. Case in point: The use of polygraphs, which measure physiological responses like heart rate, blood pressure, and sweating, has been federally restricted for private companies and in legal proceedings due to evidence concluding the results are “little better” than a coin toss.

• ☝️ You’re looking at some of the best science images from August, as selected by the journal Nature’s photo team.

BUSINESS & MARKETS

in partnership with Arro

• 💰 US markets closed mixed (S&P: -0.3%; Dow: -0.5%; Nasdaq: +0.2%).
• 🌐🤝 Verizon agreed to buy fellow telecom giant Frontier Communications for $20 billion, including debt.
• 🦞 Red Lobster received court approval to exit Chapter 11 bankruptcy and allow a group of investors under the name RL Investor Holdings to acquire the company.

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SPORTS, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

• 🥇 The 2024 Paris Paralympics wrap up this weekend; closing ceremony is Sunday; see the latest medal count. | 🏈 The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Baltimore Ravens 27-20 last night, officially kicking off the NFL regular season; the Packers take on the Eagles tonight in São Paulo, Brazil. | 💰🏈 CNBC published a list ranking the valuations of all 32 NFL teams; see how they stack up.
• 🙏 Rich Homie Quan, the Atlanta rapper known for hits like “Type of Way,” died at the age of 34. | 🎭 Michael Keaton said he plans to update his stage name to Michael Douglas Keaton; the actor was prevented from using his birth name – Michael Douglas – at the start of his career due to Screen Actors Guild rules against duplicate names.
• ⚽ Alex Morgan, the US striker widely recognized as one of the greatest players in women’s soccer history, announced her retirement after 15 years; Morgan helped lead the USWNT to two FIFA World Cup titles and an Olympic gold medal. | ⚾ The Chicago Cubs threw a combined no-hitter in their 12-0 victory against the Pirates on Wednesday night; starter Shota Imanaga tossed seven hitless innings.

SCIENCE, SPACE & EMERGING TECH

in partnership with Armoire

• 💪👀 A team of researchers developed a method to make living tissue such as human skin transparent – in a safe and temporary manner – using a common food dye, per a study published yesterday in Science.
• 💊 The Drug Enforcement Agency raised its production cap on the ADHD drug Vyvanase and its generic equivalents by ~24%; the move is aimed at addressing recent shortages due to high demand.
• 🤖 OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever's new venture, Safe Superintelligence, raised $1 billion to help develop safe AI systems, per a Reuters report. | 🐷🫀 Biotech startup eGenesis raised $191 million to further develop human-compatible transplants using gene-edited pig organs; eGenesis provided the world's first genetically modified pig kidney transplanted into a human in March.

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MISCELLANEOUS

• 🎓 The top US colleges of 2025 are Princeton, Babson, and Stanford, according to the annual Wall Street Journal/College Pulse rankings published yesterday.
• 🌐📚 The Internet Archive lost its appeal in a legal case over whether it could lend out scanned ebooks without the approval of publishers.
• 🚨 The father of the 14-year-old Georgia school shooting suspect was arrested yesterday in connection with the Wednesday shooting that left four people dead; the father is charged with second-degree murder, involuntary manslaughter, and cruelty to children. | ⚖️ Hunter Biden pleaded guilty to all nine charges in his federal tax evasion case, in a last-minute reversal of Biden’s initial plan to fight the charges at trial. (From the Left | From the Center | From the Right)

CLICKBAIT

• 🗣️ Do you speak Gen Alpha? Test your ‘skibidi’ knowledge with this quiz.

**The Arro Card is issued by Community Federal Savings Bank, member FDIC, pursuant to license by Mastercard International. Here is our Privacy Policy.

🚭🏫 Stat of the Day: In recent years, younger Americans have adopted a new smoking-related slogan: “Puff-puff? Pass.” In a report published yesterday, the CDC and FDA said rates of vaping among middle- and high-school students has fallen by nearly 25% over the past year. Overall, 7.8% of high school students and 3.5% of middle school students say they currently use e-cigarettes, down from a recent peak of 27.1% and 7.2% in 2018 – the last year before the US government raised the minimum smoking age from 18 to 21.

🤔 Did You Know? The NCAA was founded in the early 1900s in part to protect young athletes from the brutality of college football. During the 1904 season alone, there were 18 deaths and 159 serious injuries on the college football field.

📰 Worth a Read: Getting a divorce? There’s a coach for that → (The Hustle)

We bring you the most unusual, off-the-wall and occasionally laugh-out-loud headlines from this week.

• Idaho man spits ping-pong ball at a wall to break record → (UPI)
• Homeowner receives complaints after setting up Halloween display in August → (WITN)
• Boxes of french fries covered Los Angeles highway after crash, causing 6-hour long cleanup → (USA Today)
• Half a house for half a million dollars: Home crushed by tree hits market near Los Angeles → (Associated Press)
• Want to get paid $1,000 to taste and rate Trader Joe's Fall Foods? | Website offers seasonal 'side hustle' → (WPMT FOX43)

In January 2022, cat mom Karla was faced with every pet owner's nightmare: her fur baby went missing in the middle of an abnormally cold winter and never came home.  

She spent months searching around her Texas home for her cat, Shoto, to no avail and eventually accepted that he would never return home. Heartbroken, she moved on with her life and grieved his loss. 

That is, until earlier this week... when Karla received a call from the Dakin Humane Society in Massachussets: they had found her boy.  

• Karla immediately got in the car and made the 26-hour drive to be reunited with her lost cat. 
• "No one except for Shoto will ever know how he got to Massachusetts, what he experienced, or who he met along the way. That adventure will forever remain his secret," the shelter shared.

Coming at you hotter than a car engine after running for hours, it’s the DONUT’s weekly news quiz.

Find out how your news superpowers stack up against our team.

Below are three lists of ingredients. Your job is give us the completed dish they make.

☝️ Recipe #1:

• Shallots
• Vegetable oil
• Salt & pepper
• Mayo
• Lemon juice
• Chives
• Garlic
• Shrimp
• Olive oil
• Old Bay seasoning
• Butter
• Hot dog buns
• Bibb lettuce

✌️ Recipe #2:

• Egg whites
• Cream of tartar
• Sugar
• Heavy cream
• Powdered sugar
• Vanilla extract
• Salt
• Mixed fresh berries

3️⃣ Recipe #3:

• Warm water
• Instant yeast
• Flour
• Eggs
• Egg yolk
• Sugar
• Salt
• Butter
• Raisins
• Cinnamon
• Milk

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☝️ Recipe #1: Old Bay shrimp rolls

✌️ Recipe #2: Berry Pavlova

3️⃣ Recipe #3: Cinnamon swirl raisin bread