Russia-Ukraine peace talks falter over key territorial dispute
Image: Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council press office
The third round of Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations kicked off in Geneva, Switzerland, this week, with the talks starting days ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia’s large-scale invasion in 2022.
The renewed diplomacy was short-lived, however, ending abruptly on Day 2 as both sides remained far apart on the central issue: control of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
Some quick background: Donbas is made up of two smaller regions: Donetsk and Luhansk. Moscow moved to annex the Donbas region following its 2022 invasion, and currently controls all of Luhansk and ~75% of Donetsk.
The Donbas region carries significant economic and strategic importance:
- It’s historically one of Ukraine’s main industrial centers, and is rich in coal and metal deposits.
- It also creates a land corridor linking Russia to Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014, making it an attractive target for Russia’s military.
Both sides remain at odds over Donbas. Despite holding just over 10% of the region, Ukraine has consistently maintained that all of Donbas is sovereign territory and refused to cede any land. Meanwhile, Russia's central demand is for Ukraine to hand over all of Donbas, including the areas not currently occupied by Russian forces.
More broadly, Moscow is also seeking assurances that Ukraine won’t join NATO, and wants to retain control over the country’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant—both of which are sticking points for Ukraine.
A potential compromise?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week indicated he would support freezing the current front lines—allowing Russia to retain control of the land it captured—as part of a broader peace deal with Moscow, but only if Ukrainian voters approve it in a national referendum.
On the flip side, Kremlin officials have repeatedly maintained that Russia aims to secure full control of Donbas, either through negotiations or continued military action if talks fail.
Looking ahead…Both Russia and Ukraine have expressed willingness to continue peace negotiations, though a future timeline has yet to be announced. Zelensky is scheduled to meet with US and European leaders at the White House on Monday.
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Sprinkles from the Left
- Some commentators argue that Russia is deliberately dragging out peace talks while escalating strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to weaken civilian morale and deter Western aid, and that if the US hopes to secure a lasting settlement, it must raise the economic and military costs of continued war through tougher sanctions and expanded air-defense support.
- Others contend that President Trump’s newly created “Board of Peace” echoes Soviet-era propaganda tactics that used the language of peace to mask power consolidation, raising concerns that performative diplomacy and mixed signals toward Russia could undermine genuine efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
- “Putin Doesn’t Want Peace. He Wants More Time” –Bloomberg Editorial Board
- “Trump Plays the Peace Game” –Serge Schmemann, NY Times
- “Russia’s Million-Man War in Ukraine” –Yevhenii Malik and Alexandra Vacroux, Boston Globe
Sprinkles from the Right
- Some commentators argue that Russia is using peace talks as a stalling tactic to weaken US support for Ukraine, betting that prolonged negotiations will erode Western resolve and ultimately produce a weak settlement that allows Moscow to regroup.
- Others contend that despite Russia’s heavy casualties and limited territorial gains, Vladimir Putin is negotiating from a position of weakness, and the US should increase military and economic pressure to secure a stronger and more durable peace in Ukraine.
- “Why Russia keeps playing games in Ukraine peace talks” –Ani Chkhikvadze, Washington Examiner
- “Vladimir Putin Isn’t Winning in Ukraine” –WSJ Editorial Board
- “Vladimir Putin’s finally starting to sweat — so it’s time for Trump to turn up the heat” –NY Post Editorial Board
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