Over a quarter of private US colleges at risk of closure

Private US colleges have faced more problems than an AP Calc student in recent years, with flagging enrollment and falling revenue straining the finances of schools nationwide.

More than a quarter of private colleges in the US are at risk of closing their doors altogether, according to a new analysis from Huron Consulting Group.

By the numbers: Some 442 of America’s 1,700 private, nonprofit four-year colleges could close or merge within the next decade, with 120+ schools in the highest-risk category, Huron estimates.

• Other surveys have found 86% of college leaders say they’re concerned about long-term financial stability, and ~1 in 5 have held serious discussions about merging with another institution.
• In the worst-case scenario, some ~670,000 college students could be left scrambling to transfer, risking lost credits, disrupted timelines, and higher costs.

Driving the trend

Experts say the main problem is a shrinking admissions pipeline, with 2.3 million fewer college students today than in 2010. This is attributed to several factors:

• The price of college tuition has increased ~42% faster than the pace of inflation over the past 25 years, leading many students (and parents) to believe college isn’t worth its significant cost.
• Trade schools and specialized certification programs have skyrocketed in popularity, allowing many students to bypass the traditional university system entirely.
• There’s also growing sentiment that many colleges have become ideological echo chambers and/or corporate entities that exploit students for profit and saddle them with major debt.

Overall, the share of high school graduates going straight to college has fallen from 70% in 2016 to 61% in 2023.

But…Not everyone is skipping school. Ivy League and elite flagship schools like Stanford, MIT, the University of Virginia, and UNC have seen a record-breaking flood of applications in recent years, driving acceptance rates to new lows.

Looking ahead...US colleges are also facing a looming enrollment cliff fueled by demographic changes. A birth decline that started in 2008—falling from a US-record 4.3 million to 3.6 million last year—has effectively lit an 18-year fuse that kicks in next year.

By 2039, analysts predict there will be 650,000, or 15%, fewer 18-year-olds per year compared to today.

📊 Flash poll: In general, do you think the projected closure/merging of struggling private US colleges is generally positive or negative for society?

• Generally positive
• Generally negative
• Neutral/other