America’s “baby corridor” bucks fertility decline

Falling birth rates across the US have been a major talking point for years. But zoom in on the map and a different story starts to emerge: America’s middle is significantly outpacing its edges.

By the numbers: A “baby corridor” stretching through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas continues to post higher fertility rates than the rest of the country, despite a nationwide decline.

The US fertility rate stood at 53.8 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44 in 2024, per CDC data. But across those six central states, the rate was 10%+ higher than the national average, at 59.3 births/1,000 women.

What’s driving America’s ‘middle child syndrome’?

Researchers point to a wide range of reasons:

• Places like Texas and North Dakota are among America’s youngest states, meaning they have more women in their peak childbearing years.
• Child care tends to cost less in middle states than it does in many coastal regions, while cheaper real-estate prices also make buying a family-sized home more realistic.
• Women tend to have more children where they can more easily find higher-paying jobs, and the gender wage gap is lower in places like Dallas compared to Detroit or Pittsburgh, per family demographer Jennifer Glass.

Culture plays a role, too. Americans today are generally marrying and having children later than previous generations, especially in large metro areas. But rural communities and more religious regions tend to see earlier marriages and childbearing, providing a longer window for additional kids.

Worth mentioning: Higher fertility rates don't necessarily mean more babies overall. California still welcomes far more newborns each year than South Dakota despite a far lower birth rate, given its much larger population.

Zoom out: The average American woman is now expected to have about 1.6 children over her lifetime, down from 2.1 in 2007—and 7+ in 1800.